Covid19 is not as deadly as made out to be

India has been through four phases of Covid19 lockdown since 25 March 2020 and now is in the Unlock 1.0 phase.

The first phase of the lockdown was most prohibitive. After that, from lockdown 2.0 onwards, relaxation in terms of activities permitted has been given by the Government in a phased fashion.

I have prepared two graphs given below; the first graph depicts the lockdown matrix phase-wise in terms of average daily increase of Covid19 +ve cases, average percentage death from positive cases, increase in the death rate from the previous day and average percentage recovery.

The second graph shows the running number of tests carried out in India from 17 May till 06 June.

The following can be deduced from the graphs: -

Though the activity level has increased in the successive phases, the rate of increase or spike in cases has shown a descending trend with each passing phase. The death rate has steadily come down with each phase. Recoveries have been on a steep ascent with each successive phase. Most importantly, as the tests have gone up by each passing day, the number of cases has also gone up.

As a matter of conjecture, if we take testing figures from 17 May onwards till 06 June and the pattern of daily emergence of corona +ve cases in the same period that both are near about analogous, that is approximately 1 lakh and 4.98-4.46 cases test per day and positive cases respectively.

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The above testing related figures can lead to a possible conclusion that the number of +ve cases emerging every day is proportionate to the testing numbers. In this correlation, it is felt that if the number of tests per day is doubled, then the number of total covid19 +ve cases in all likelihood may also get doubled as a very conservative data-driven assumption.

Now, if the number of cases spikes to double from what are the figures now, the death rate from the total positive cases will come down to just over 1%, and the recovery rate will also climb up significantly.

One has to keep in mind that Death rate is near to accurate because deaths cannot be hidden under the prevailing circumstances; instead, there is a high possibility that a lot of deaths occurring due to other comorbid conditions must be getting clubbed with Covid19 deaths in the present-day circumstances.

And the other factor which reinforces the above deductions is that majority of Covid19 +ve people remain asymptomatic and they may go through the infection without even realising it.

It becomes more evident by each passing day that Covid19 is not as big a killer as it has been made out to be at least in the case of India because of its young median age profile and better immunity conceivably. Therefore, it becomes imperative that the people are made aware so that they can migrate out of the fear psychosis caused by a lot of misrepresentation and most importantly the fear of death. Equally important is the imparting of continuous education to people on adherence to virtues of personal hygiene, social distancing, wearing of masks, and special care of elders and sickly people.

About the author: Lt Col Suneet Newton (Veteran)\

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