Analysis: Why the BJP Won't "Support" BPF in Upcoming BTC Polls

Guwahati, March 13, 2020:

With the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) elections just around the bend, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which has become the Godfather of the smaller regional parties in Assam, has announced to go "solo" in the BTC polls, to be held on April 4.

At a recent meeting, the Party President Ranjeet Dass reportedly said that the BJP will contest the elections alone instead of supporting its allies, the BPF party, which is part of the ruling coalition Government in Assam. So does this signal at an end to the 'brotherhood' between the rulers of Bodoland and the saffron party? Or it it part of a greater scheme to ensure a win for the BPF in the region?

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Highly-placed analysts have informed Inside Northeast that the BJP is "withdrawing" support to its allies, the BPF, because of one reason only: to "steal" votes from the oboro/non-Bodo voters, who could possibly vote in favour of the Nava Sarania-fronted Gana Suraksha Mancha (GSM). The new party has now projected Sarania as the CEM candidate.

Sarania, who won the lone MP seat in the region, Kokrajhar, for a second time last year, is the clear-cut favorite among the non-Bodos, who played a decisive role in his election last year. This time, too, the oboro factor is likely to play a key part in who wins the coveted seat, which is quickly shaping into a 3-way contest: between the BPF, UPPL, and Sarania's GSM.

Sarania, meanwhile, has asserted that his new party will contest in all 40 seats in the Council.

Addressing the media on Thursday, the MP remained buoyant about his chances. "The BPF and the UPPL are no factors in this election. The BJP also cannot go for an open alliance with any of the two parties for various reasons. It has to maintain equidistance from both the parties. The BJP is going to field candidates wherever we’ll field candidates only to split out votes", he had said. Thus, Sarania is already aware of the BJP's gameplan; can he overcome the challenge posed by the saffron unit's tactic, though?

In the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts (BTAD), dominated by the Bodo community, the BJP's influence is negligible. Indeed, the BTC supremo Hagrama Mohilary has pointed out that the BJP and AGP, another ally, hold no away in the region, and thus, they cannot be expected to make a dent in the polls. Thus, experts point out that the BJP is "helping" out the BPF by "stealing" away votes from the competition.

Meanwhile, the BPF party has also been bolstered by the joining of B Saoraigwra, the leader of the disbanded NDFB (S), who was welcomed into the party with open arms in Chirang district yesterday.

Meanwhile, the United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) has also bolstered its ranks ahead of the BTC polls with the addition of BR Ferrenga, another NDFB leader of note. The UPPL, over the months, has emerged as a formidable power to topple the BPF from its perch atop the BTC throne. Especially with the addition of Pramod Boro, the influential student leader, the party has thrown the gauntlet to the AGP-BJP-BPF coalition that it has the faces to cause an upset. Furthermore, the UPPL also has the backing of the NDFB (P) leader Gobinda Basumatary, who has been a fixture in protests in demand of a separate State Bodoland.

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