Assam election 2021: Inside NE prediction, preview, & analysis

 

GUWAHATI: Assam is firmly in the grip of election fever, with all the major political parties engaged in a bitter war of words as they highlight their achievements and promises, setting the tone for keenly contested polls.

 

 

While the Congress has partnered up with the minority-friendly All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) giving a headache to the ruling BJP-led coalition, new regional parties such as Assam Jatiya Parishad (AGP) and the 'Raijor Dal' have surfaced after the tumult over the Citizenship Amendment Act and are seeking to capitalize.

 

 

On the other hand, the BJP will contest the election alongside allies United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) and the 'Asom Gana Parishad' (AGP) and seems keen to hold onto its fortress, with its leaders reaching the state to join the campaign carnival.

 

 

Amidst the hullaballoo, the biggest question in the minds of the public is -- who will win the election and form the government?

 

 

ALSO READ: Congress ‘copies’ saffron model of wooing voters with ‘Gaushalas’ for unproductive cows

 

 

There are many key battleground Constituencies in the state which will tilt the election one way or the other. This year, InsideNE reached out to the grassroots-level voters for their views and opinions with its Janata Express. After extensive research and analysis, we now present to you our official forecast for the upcoming election.

 

 

In Upper Assam's Sadiya, Bolin Chetia has been undefeated over the past 15 years. During the time of mass migration from the Congress to BJP, Chetia too joined the BJP and got a ticket from the saffron party right away.

 

 

 

However, he is expected to face a stiff challenge this time as Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) general secretary Jagadish Bhuyan -- who won on AGP tickets in 1996 and in 2001 -- is also contesting.

 

 

 

In Doomdooma, the Congress is pitching sitting MLA Durga Bhumij, while the BJP and AJP have fielded Rupesh Gowala and Suresh Bhumij respectively -- all three representing the tea community.

 

 

Although the tea community voters traditionally decide the fate of candidates in the constituency and Durga Bhumij appears to be in a strong position, this time it’s a problem of plenty with three from the tea community which could lead to division of votes. This could even help Lakheswar Moran come out victorious.

 

 

In Naharkatia, Pranati Phukan of Congress, Tarang Gogoi of BJP and AJP president Lurinjyoti Gogoi are in a tri-cornered contest. Sitting MLA AGP’s Naren Sonowal has also filed nomination as an independent after being denied a ticket by the NDA alliance.

 

 

If we look at the voting pattern, Pranati Phukan, Tarang Gogoi and Lurinjyoti Gogoi belong to the Ahom community and division of votes among them might help Naren Sonowal who had defeated Pranati Phukan in the last assembly election. Our experts have assessed a neck-and-neck fight between Congress and BJP, with the latter having the edge.

 

 

If we look at the political environment of Duliajan, BJP has fielded Terash Gowala and Congress had pitched Dhrubajyoti Gogoi; it will also be Lurinjyoti Gogoi’s second constituency. The voting patter has traditionally been same as Naharkatia. Lurinjyoti Gogoi and Dhrubajyoti Gogoi being Ahoms might help BJP’s incumbent MLA Terash Gowala. Dhrubajyoti Gogoi’s base in the constituency also cannot be denied. In a two-cornered contest here, it is the BJP that is expected to prevail.

 

 

In Dibrugarh, Prasanta Phukan has been winning the seat for 25 years. His base is still very strong compared to Congress candidate Rajkumar Nilanetra Neog. His victory here seems like a forgone conclusion.

 

 

Additionally, the saffron party's base is strong in Moran, Lahowal, Tinsukia, Digboi, Margherita and Tingkhong.

 

 

In Chabua, AGP’s Punakon Baruah seems to be having the edge in comparison to Congress candidate Ajay Phukan.

 

 

BJP candidates Ranoj Pegu in Dhemaji and Bhubon Pegu in Jonai are stronger by their own rights. Bhubon Pegu had won the last election as independent by a huge margin in spite of the pro-Modi wave. He joined the BJP recently and the result is expected to triumph on the basis of his popularity.

 

 

At Dhakuakhana, Naba Kumar Doley of BJP and Padma Lochan Doley of Congress are expected to be locked in a neck-to-neck fight. It will be interesting to watch who will prevail, although, at this point in time, you have to give the the edge to the ruling party's candidate.

 

 

Now, the situation in Lakhimpur constituency is a bit interesting. BJP has pitched Manab Deka and Congress has given ticket to Dr. Jai Prakash Das. AGP's sitting MLA Utpal Dutta has also decided to go for a friendly contest as an independent. However, it is unlikely that anybody but the BJP candidate will walk away with the last laugh.

 

 

Circumstances in Naoboicha will also be interesting due to presence of Rao Gajendra Singh, who is going to contest as an independent candidate.

 

 

He was a BJP aspirant and received second highest votes in the 2016 assembly election. This might help Congress's Bharat Chandra Narah, who is fighting against Jayanta Khound of the AGP. But, there is a another factor called Azizur Rahman of Raijor Dal. All said and done, the Congress candidate appears to be the strongest.

 

 

The fight in Bihpuria seems to be evenly poised between Congress candidate Bhupen Bora and BJP’s Dr Amiya Kr Bhuyan. Sitting MLA Debananda Hazarika, who was denied a ticket this time, and his supporters might take it a little personally.

 

 

In Sibsagar, where the BJP has never won, the party has fielded Surabhi Rajkonwar. This time, the anti-CAA votes will get divided between Congress’s Subhamitra Gogoi and Raijor Dal president Akhil Gogoi who is contesting as an independent.

 

 

Congress seems to have a strong hold in Thowra with Sushanta Borgohain in the fray. He will be facing BJP incumbent MLA Kushal Dowari and Dharjya Konwar of Raijor Dal.

 

 

In the Sonari constituency, it’s been found that Congress candidate Sushil Kumar Suri will face a tough fight from BJP’s Dharmeswar Konwar.

 

 

In Mahmara, BJP candidate Jogen Mohan is on a better ground than the rest. Congress candidate Suruj Dehingia might stand a chance to give him a competition.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nazira has always been a Congress bastion. Hence former Assam chief minister Hiteswar Saikia’s son Debabrata Saikia has a stronghold over the constituency. Hence, he would be a big challenge ahead of BJP candidate Mayur Burhagohain. But, the BJP is not going to give Saikia walkover. The saffron party has been quite aggressive in campaign in the constituency.

 

 

Amguri has a very interesting history; if AGP wins one term, the Congress wins it the next. No one has won consecutive two terms. Last time, it was won by AGP’s Prodip Hazarika. This time, the Congress has given a ticket to former Congress chief Anjan Dutta’s daughter Angkita Dutta. She seems to enjoy an edge over her rival owing to her popularity and acceptance by her father's loyalists.

 

 

Teok has been the fortress of AGP due to the Rajkhowa family. But this time, there’s an anti-incumbency factor against AGP MLA Renupoma Rajkhowa. Congress has fielded Pallabi Gogoi, daughter-in-law of former MLA Membor Gogoi, who had lost in the last election by a very narrow margin to Rajkhowa.

 

 

In Mariani, the tea community voters will play the key role. Although the BJP has been campaigning hard for its candidate Ramani Tanti with firebrand star campaigner Dr. Himanta Biswa Sarma chipping in, Congress candidate Rupjyoti Kurmi's decades long popularity and Akhil Gogoi backing out of the fray will prove out to be a factor in favour of Rupjyoti Kurmi.

 

 

Titabar was the bastion of former Congress chief minister Tarun Gogoi and hence, it a high-profile constituency. This time, Congress has fielded candidate Bhaskar Jyoti Baruah will have to fight against former MLA Hemanta Kalita of the BJP. Gogoi's charisma will be missed and is expected to give the edge to the saffron party.

 

 

Majuli is the constituency from where Assam chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal will fight again this time. Sonowal will be facing former Congress minister Rajib Lochan Pegu who has a strong hold as well. Nearly 70% of the inhabitants are ethnic in the river island. With the demographic change, the predominantly Mising community inhibited constituency has witnessed a sea change. Accordingly, the political scene also changed, making it a BJP bastion now. 

 

 

Now coming to Jorhat. Congress has given ticket to their two-time MLA Rana Goswami and he will be facing BJP’s Hitendra Nath Goswami once again. Jorhat is a constituency where anti-CAA protests had a bearing in 2019 which might help Congress candidate Rana Goswami, who had earlier defeated Hitendra Nath Goswami in 2006 and lost to him in 2016.

 

 

Rana Goswami has been getting his act together in the constituency and a neck-to-neck fight between Congress and BJP is certainly on the cards.

 

 

In Dergaon constituency, AGP’s Bhabendra Nath Bharali has a stronger hold compared to Congress’s Bani Hazarika, and is expected to sweep the election.

 

 

In Khumtai, Congress candidate Bishmita Gogoi had lost to BJP’s Mrinal Saikia in the last election. This time also Mrinal Saikia, projected as a 'son of the soil', seems to be the stronger candidate.

 

 

Another most anticipated constituency is Golaghat. Political reshuffle has changed the whole dynamics of this constituency. Congress MLA and former minister Ajanta Neog migrated to BJP and received a ticket from the party, while former BJP candidate Bitupan Saikia switched loyalty to Congress for a ticket. Both are quite strong candidates, but the voters appear to very confused about the recent reshuffle of the leaders. Most of the rural masses are not even aware of it, which might tilt the election in the BJP's favour.

 

 

Sarupathar is showing inclination towards the BJP. BJP has given ticket to Biswajit Phukan against Congress candidate Roselina Tirkey and AJP candidate Raju Phukan.

 

 

Bokakhat constituency does not seem to be going out of AGP president Atul Bora’s grasp.

 

 

In Lumding, sitting BJP MLA Shibu Mishra has a stronger chance of winning in comparison to Congress candidate Swapan Kar.

 

 

In Hojai, BJP, interestingly, denied ticket to sitting MLA Shiladitya Dev and has pitched Ramkrishna Ghosh instead who will go against Congress candidate Debabrata Saha. Now, AIUDF has not supported the Congress decision on Debabrata Saha internally. Additionally, Congress’s former minister Ardhendu Kr Dey has quit Congress with 3000 supporters and joined the BJP. We cannot deny these two factors along with BJP already having Hojai with it. Had Shiladitya gone independent, that would have helped the Congress a bit. 

 

 

In Jamunamukh, instead of sitting MLA Abdur Rahim Ajmal, who is son of AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal, AIUDF has given ticket to former MP Sirajuddin Ajmal, the brother of Badaruddin Ajmal. AGP has pitched Sadiqulla Bhuiya and Dilwara Begum Choudhury will be contesting from Raijor Dal. AIUDF will be the favourite.

 

 

In Kaliabor, AGP MLA and minister Keshab Mahanta has a strong hold. Although Congress has pitched Prasanta Kumar Saikia, it is unlikely to make much of an impact.

 

 

Samaguri has been a bastion of Congress MLA and former minister Rakibul Hussain. This time also Rakibul will be stronger in comparison to BJP’s Anil Saikia and AJP’s Abidur Rahman.

 

 

Another interesting constituency is Barhampur where the BJP has pitched a candidate in Jitu Goswami who is set to have a tight fight with Congress candidate Suresh Borah. It was an AGP bastion and fortress of former chief minister Prafulla Kr Mahanta since 1991 which he had never lost till the last election. The NDA’s denial of a ticket to Prafulla Mahanta might prove to be a factor.

 

 

In Nagaon, the BJP candidate is Rupak Sarma and Congress has given ticket to Santanu Sarma. In the meantime, Durlav Chomua has resigned from the Congress and joined the BJP which is going to be an important factor. Although the competition will be neck-to-neck between the BJP and the Congress, related factors might help the BJP.

 

 

If we look to Rupohihat, Congress candidate Nurul Huda is standing firm this time and BJP candidate Nazir Hussain is unlikely to make much of an impact.

 

 

In Batadrova, after Congress-AIUDF alliance it could have been a win-win situation for Congress candidate Sibamoni Bora. But an AIUDF candidate decided to go independent from the constituency after he was denied ticket in the seat sharing. This might favour incumbent Angoorlata Deka, but the Congress candidate has the edge at the moment.

 

 

In Dhing, the faceoff would be between AIUDF candidate Alhaj Aminul Islam and Raijor Dal candidate Mehboob Muftar. Both of them hold two separate vote banks in the constituency due to their family backgrounds. This constituency’s result will be an interesting one, with Islam being the slight favourite.

 

 

Congress's Sashi Kanta Das's base seems strong in Raha and he is likely to outgun AGP's Bishnu Das.

 

 

In Lahorighat, there has been a conflict since the beginning. Congress nominated Asif Mohd Nazar, and Congress members within the party itself were not in his support whole heartedly. BJP has pitched new party member Kadiruj Jaman Zinnah which made their party workers furious as well. Taking all these factors into account, Siddiqui Ahmad of AIUDF decided to go as independent against all of them.

 

 

In Morigaon, the UPA has fielded Munin Mahanta of CPI. BJP’s Rama Kanta Deori has a base there and is expected to have a tough fight with AJP's Banikanta Das.

 

 

In Jagiroad, sitting MLA Pijush Hazarika's position is quite strong. Votes might get divided between Congress's Swapan Kumar Mandal and AJP's Bubul Das. Bengali voters play a vital role in this constituency in catalysing a candidate’s fate. Since Congress is firm on their anti-CAA stance, BJP might woo most of the Bengali votes.

 

 

Tezpur constituency is known to be AGP’s bastion and was represented by Brindaban Goswami over the past 25 years. But this time, the party denied him the ticket and projected new face Prithviraj Rabha. Although Congress has also given ticket to a new candidate Anuj Kumar Mech. But AGP does not seem to be losing its ground. 

 

 

In its adjoining constituencies such as Dhekiajuli, Barsola, Rangapara, Sootea, Biswanath Chariali, Behali and Gohpur, the NDA seems to be having the upper hand. In Gohpur, however, APCC president Ripun Bora will give a tough fight to Utpal Bora.

 

 

Barring Sootea, AJP has also fielded candidates in the other constituencies which might prove to be helpful for the BJP only.

 

 

According to our analyses, the NDA will once again form the government after winning 75 Seats, while the UPA is likely to win around 45 Seats (an improvement in comparison to 2016, but still not enough to form the government). Other parties are unlikely to challenge the likely to wrest away a single Seat from the national parties.