Congress's uphill battle: Can Gaurav Gogoi challenge Himanta Biswa Sarma's BJP juggernaut in Assam polls?

Assam’s opposition Congress faces a difficult contest against the ruling BJP in the upcoming assembly elections scheduled for April 9, even as state unit president Gaurav Gogoi attempts to position the party as the main challenger to Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.

Out of power since 2016 after ruling the state for three consecutive terms, the Congress is confronting a BJP strengthened by a strong organisational network, Sarma’s aggressive political leadership and welfare initiatives that have helped consolidate the ruling party’s support base.

Despite these challenges, the Congress hopes to use anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP to regain political ground. The party is attempting to broaden its opposition platform by forging alliances with the Assam Jatiya Parishad, the CPI(M) and the All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) in a bid to mount a united challenge.

Minority voters, particularly Bengali-speaking Muslims, remain a key support base for the Congress. The community has increasingly rallied behind the party amid criticism of the BJP government’s policies, including eviction drives and measures targeting undocumented migrants.

Gogoi’s political standing within the party has also strengthened after he won the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat by a comfortable margin in 2024 despite the BJP deploying its full campaign machinery against him. The Congress has once again projected him as its chief ministerial face and nominated him from the Jorhat assembly constituency, a move the party believes could energise its cadre.

The opposition is also expected to focus heavily on corruption allegations levelled against the state government, including accusations directed at the chief minister, some members of his family and several cabinet colleagues.

However, internal setbacks continue to weaken the Congress organisation. The party has faced repeated defections over the past decade, beginning with Sarma’s exit from the Congress before joining the BJP. More recently, former state president Bhupen Borah and three MLAs switched to the BJP, while two others joined the Raijor Dal.

The erosion of the Congress’s grassroots structure has also become evident, particularly in tea garden areas where workers once formed a crucial support base but have increasingly shifted towards the BJP since 2014.

The ruling party has also sought to politically target Gogoi by raising allegations about his wife, Elizabeth Colburn and supposed Pakistani links, claims the Congress has rejected. Political observers say such allegations could influence sections of voters, particularly in rural regions.

For the Congress, one major opportunity lies in mobilising public discontent and drawing attention to governance issues. The party is also expected to highlight the BJP-led government’s failure to grant Scheduled Tribe status to six communities — Tai Ahom, Chutia, Moran, Motok, Koch-Rajbongshi and Tea Tribes (Adivasis).

At the same time, the Congress hopes to benefit from dissatisfaction within the ruling NDA alliance and attract disgruntled leaders into its fold.

Yet the path to power remains uncertain. The BJP has repeatedly argued that the Congress depends heavily on the support of Bengali-speaking Muslims, a narrative aimed at consolidating the dominant Assamese vote.

With continuing defections and the BJP’s strong organisational and administrative machinery, the Congress faces a tough battle as Assam heads to the polls on April 9.