Himanta Biswa Sarma urges caution despite survey predicting BJP victory in Assam

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has cautioned against premature celebrations over a recent opinion poll projecting a third consecutive term for the Bharatiya Janata Party, emphasising that seat-sharing arrangements remain undecided ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections.

"The survey has been given, and it shows us in a good position, but I feel that the time for surveys has not yet come," Sarma told reporters, responding to the latest Tracker Poll by People's Pulse Research Organisation that forecasts the BJP winning between 69 and 74 seats in the 126-member Assembly.

The chief minister stressed that critical decisions regarding seat allocation within the National Democratic Alliance remain pending. "Because AGP has been shown with 9 seats, and we have been shown with 75 seats. Now, whether we will contest all 75 or not has not been decided yet," he said.

Sarma emphasised that clarity would only emerge by February once the Congress finalises its alliance strategy and the NDA completes its seat-sharing negotiations. "Until all these issues are clarified, we should not feel happy just by looking at any survey. We must continue to work hard and keep doing our work and surveys will keep coming out. The real outcome will be what comes out of the machine," he added.

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The survey, conducted between November 15 and December 31, 2025, projects the NDA securing close to 90 seats overall, with alliance partners Asom Gana Parishad expected to win between eight and 11 seats and the Bodoland People's Front forecast to secure eight to 10 seats.

The Indian National Congress is projected to win between 25 and 29 seats, whilst smaller parties face a bleak outlook. The All India United Democratic Front is forecast at zero to two seats, with United People's Party Liberal, Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, and CPI(M) all projected to win minimal or no representation.

In terms of vote share, the BJP is projected to secure 39 per cent against the Congress's 37 per cent. The survey attributes the Congress's marginal improvement largely to the erosion of AIUDF's Muslim voter base, particularly in Barak Valley and Lower Assam.

Regional projections show the NDA maintaining dominance across Upper Assam with minimal opposition, whilst a BJP–BPF sweep is expected in the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts of Middle Assam. Lower Assam is projected to tilt towards the NDA following delimitation, with the BJP–AGP alliance gaining ground. In Barak Valley, the NDA is forecast to secure eight to 10 seats post-delimitation.

Public sentiment appears favourable towards the ruling party, with 48 per cent of respondents saying the BJP was better for Assam's development compared to 38 per cent for the Congress. Some 55 per cent predicted a BJP victory in government formation, whilst an equal percentage believed the party deserved another term in office.