Inside Northeast analysis with numbers: Who will win BTC election 2020?

GUWAHATI: With the high-voltage polls in the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) having officially come to an end, all eyes will now be turned to the results, which will be declared on December 12. Already debates and discussions have begun and experts and pundits are weighing in with their predictions. Inside Northeast too has conducted extensive analysis and after carefully going through the patterns and trends in each of the 40 Constituencies across the 4 districts, we have come up with the Inside Northeast exit polls.

For the two-phase polls, a total of 3,146 polling stations were set up across the BTR. Of the total 23,82,036 electors, male voters number 12,03,008 and female voters 11,79,020 besides eight ‘third gender’ voters.

BAKSA : Inside Northeast sources and experts have predicted that the contest in Baksa will be between the BJP and the BPF. The BPF is likely to win 5 out of the 11 Seats in the district.

Total number of constituencies under Baksa District -11

BJP: (4) BPF:(5)              UPPL:(1)             GSP:(1)         AIUDF/CONGRESS:(0)         OTHERS:(1)

There will a tight contest between UPPL & GSP in the Koklabari constituency. UPPL may win in that constituency. There will be a tight contest between BJP and BPF in Nagrijuli and Baksa.

UDALGURI : The contest in Udalguri is expected to be pretty even between the BJP, BPF, and UPPL parties, and all 3 are expected to divide the spoils equally.

Total number of constituencies under Udalguri District -10

BJP: (4) BPF: (3-4) UPPL:(2-3)  GSP-(0)     AIUDF/CONGRESS:(1) OTHERS:(0)

As the BJP’s candidate in Harisinga is a former ABSU leader, so many of the voters of the UPPL will now cast ballots in favour of the BJP. AIUDF has a chance to win the Dhansiri seat as it is dominated by minorities.

KOKRAJHAR :

Total number of constituencies under Kokrajhar District -12

BJP: (0) BPF: (4-5)    UPPL: (6)           GSP:(0)     AIUDF/CONGRESS: (2)            OTHERS:(0)

There will be a tight contest between AIUDF & BJP in Fakiragram constituency where AIUDF may lose one and BJP may gain a seat.

CHIRANG : In Chirang, the BPF party is expected to win 2 Seats, while the UPPL is expected to perform slightly better and bag 4 Seats and emerge as the strongest party.

Total number of constituencies under Chirang District – 7

BJP:(1) BPF:(2) UPPL:(4)  GSP:(0)        AIUDF/CONGRESS:(0)         OTHERS:(0)

Inside Northeast Exit Poll Results:

BJP: 10-12

UPPL : 15-17

BPF : 10-12

AIUDF : 2-3

OTHERS : 1

This time the election will be a three-cornered contest between BPF, BJP and UPPL.

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Wherever BJP has given tickets to former ABSU candidates, the majority of the votes will shift from UPPL to BJP.

In Udalguri district, UPPL may win Rowta, and Bhergaon. In Bhairabkunda, there will be a tight contest between UPPL and BJP. BJP may win in Pasnwi Serfang, Harisinga and Mudoibari.

AIUDF will win the Dhansiri seat. BPF may have last laugh in Khoirabari and Khalingduar

In Baksa district, UPPL is strong in Baganpara, Salbari, Koklabari, Mushalpur and Goibari.

In Koklabari, UPPL will have a tight contest with GSP. BJP is expected to perform strongly in Mathanguri, Suklai Serfang, Darrangajuli and Goreswar. There will be a tight contest in Nagrijuli and Baksa between BJP & BPF.

In Kokrajhar district, UPPL is strong in 5 constituencies which include Dotoma, Jamduar, Soraibil, Baukhungri and Kachugaon.

There will be a fierce fight between UPPL & BPF candidate in Kachugaon constituency & in Guma BPF will have a tight contest with Congress.

BPF may have a last laugh in 4 constituencies in Kokrajhar district. AIUDF may win in two constituency.

There will be a tight contest between BJP & AIUDF in Fakiragram Constituencies where the deciding factor is the minority & Bengali-Hindu voters.

In Chirang district, UPPL is likely to win in four constituencies, BPF in two, and BJP (in alliance with AGP) has contested in Thuribari constituency where BJP may win.

WHO WILL HAVE THE LAST LAUGH?

At the moment, it seems like the popularity of Promod Boro might propel the UPPL to become the single largest party in the BTC. However, with several leaders being championed as potential CEM, it is still too early to predict the next Chief of the Council. As it stands, much will depends on the forging of alliances.

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