Key constituencies to watch as Assam prepares for one-phase assembly polls on April 9

Several high-profile constituencies across Assam are expected to shape the narrative of the upcoming Assembly elections scheduled for April 9, with political heavyweights and shifting demographics making these seats closely watched battlegrounds.

Assam’s 126 constituencies span four distinct regions — the Brahmaputra Valley, Barak Valley, the hill districts and the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR). Voting behaviour is expected to vary across regions, with Assamese voters, minorities including Bengali-speaking and Assamese Muslims, tea tribe communities and indigenous tribal groups playing decisive roles in different pockets of the state.

Among the most closely watched seats is Jalukbari, represented by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma for five consecutive terms. The constituency, combining urban and rural voters under the Gauhati Lok Sabha segment, delivered him a record victory margin of over one lakh votes in 2021. Sarma is expected to contest again in a bid to secure a sixth straight term.

Jorhat in Upper Assam is likely to see a high-stakes contest between the BJP and the Congress. The constituency, dominated by urban voters, will see Congress state president Gaurav Gogoi making his Assembly election debut. The seat has previously been represented five times by veteran leader Hitendra Nath Goswami — three terms as an AGP legislator from 1991 and twice as a BJP MLA since 2016.

Nazira, a constituency shaped by tea gardens and the oil sector, has long been associated with the late chief minister Hiteswar Saikia. Both he and his wife Hemoprava Saikia represented the seat in the past. Currently held by their son and Leader of the Opposition, Debabrata Saikia, the Congress leader will attempt to retain the constituency for a fourth consecutive term.

Golaghat, another tea-garden dominated seat, is represented by Assam’s first woman finance minister Ajanta Neog. She has held the constituency for five consecutive terms since 2001 and remains the longest-serving female legislator in the state. Neog represented the Congress until switching to the BJP in 2020 and retained the seat again in 2021.

Duliajan, known for its oil and natural gas installations alongside tea estates, has witnessed a string of BJP leaders. The constituency was represented by Terash Gowala for two terms since 2016 before he was elected to the Rajya Sabha. Earlier, Rameswar Teli held the seat before moving to the Rajya Sabha in 2020 and later serving as a Union minister. Teli is expected to contest the seat again.

Panery, considered a Bodo-dominated constituency, has been represented by outgoing Assembly Speaker Biswajit Daimary, who won the seat earlier as a candidate of the Bodoland Peoples’ Front and later the BJP.

Kokrajhar, a newly created Assembly constituency following the 2023 delimitation exercise, is expected to draw attention in the Bodoland region. While the Bodoland Peoples’ Front is seen to have an advantage, its NDA ally United Peoples’ Party Liberal may also field a candidate.

Barpeta has undergone significant demographic changes after delimitation altered its minority-dominated character. The seat is currently held by Congress MLA Abdur Rahim Ahmed, but the party has fielded Mahananda Sarkar as its candidate for the upcoming election.

In the Barak Valley, Silchar remains a politically significant constituency. Once a Congress bastion represented by the late Santosh Mohan Dev and later by his family members Bithika Dev and Sushmita Dev, the seat has been retained by the BJP since 2016. The electorate here largely comprises Bengali Hindus.

Samaguri has traditionally been a stronghold of Dhubri Lok Sabha MP Rakibul Hussain, who represented the seat five times in the Assembly. However, the BJP captured the constituency in a by-election after Hussain moved to Parliament, defeating his son Tanzil Hussain. The Congress has once again fielded Tanzil Hussain for the upcoming polls.

Barchalla on the northern bank of the Brahmaputra, is another constituency to watch. BJP’s Ganesh Kumar Limbu has held the seat since 2016. Former Congress Rajya Sabha MP and ex-state party chief Ripun Bora will challenge him in the upcoming contest.

Dispur, one of the most prestigious constituencies covering parts of Guwahati and its suburbs, has been represented by BJP’s Atul Bora since 2016. Bora earlier held the seat as an AGP MLA from 1985 to 1996 and served as a minister in the Prafulla Kumar Mahanta government. The Congress has fielded its Mahila Congress president, Mira Borthakur, who joined the party after leaving the BJP during the anti-CAA protests in 2019.

With heavyweight candidates and shifting electoral equations, these constituencies are expected to play a decisive role in shaping the outcome of the Assam Assembly elections.