Mood of Assam: Assam government's drive against illegal immigration finds majority backing, Muslims oppose

The Assam government’s renewed drive to identify and deport suspected illegal immigrants under a 1950 law has found majority support across the state, according to the latest India Today–CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey conducted in January 2026. However, the data also reveals a pronounced community-wise divergence in opinion, underlining the deeply polarised nature of the immigration debate in Assam.

The survey asked respondents whether they support the Assam government’s campaign to identify and deport suspected illegal immigrants using a law enacted in 1950.

Overall, 52.3 per cent of respondents said they support the campaign, calling it necessary to safeguard Assam’s security and identity. This reflects a majority endorsement of the government’s core argument — that unchecked illegal immigration poses demographic, cultural and security challenges to the state.

Among Hindu respondents, support is even stronger, with 64.5 per cent backing the drive. The backing is also high among respondents classified under “Others”, where 68.9 per cent support the campaign.

This pattern suggests that for a significant section of the population, the issue is closely linked to concerns over identity, land, resources and long-standing anxieties about demographic change — themes that have historically shaped Assam’s political discourse, from the Assam Movement of the 1980s to the NRC and CAA-era debates.

At the same time, a substantial section of respondents acknowledge the seriousness of the issue but emphasise the need for fairness and humane implementation.

Across the state, 27.1 per cent of respondents said that while the issue of illegal immigration is serious, the process must be fair and humane. This sentiment is particularly strong among Muslim respondents, where 40.5 per cent fall into this category — significantly higher than among Hindus (19.4 per cent) and Others (23.0 per cent).

This suggests that even among those who may not oppose action in principle, there is considerable anxiety about due process, documentation challenges, and the risk of harassment or wrongful targeting — concerns that have been raised repeatedly by civil society groups and rights organisations during earlier exercises such as the NRC.

A smaller but politically and socially significant section of respondents is opposed to the drive altogether.

Statewide, 8.8 per cent said they oppose the campaign, arguing that the approach could target innocents and create fear. This view is markedly higher among Muslim respondents, where 16.3 per cent expressed outright opposition — nearly four times the level among Hindu respondents (4.2 per cent) and substantially higher than among Others (3.3 per cent).

This highlights a deep trust deficit and fear among sections of the minority community, reflecting concerns over profiling, documentation burdens, and the potential for administrative overreach.

The survey also finds a notable undecided segment. 11.8 per cent of respondents said they don’t know or can’t say whether they support the campaign.

Interestingly, the undecided proportion is relatively similar across communities — 11.9 per cent among Hindus, 13.1 per cent among Muslims, and 4.9 per cent among Others — indicating that for a section of the electorate, opinions are still being shaped by how the policy is implemented on the ground.

The findings underline why the illegal immigration issue remains a potent political plank in Assam. The majority backing, especially among Hindu and Other communities, provides political legitimacy to the government’s hardline stance. At the same time, the sharp community-wise differences expose the risk of social polarisation and heightened political mobilisation around identity and citizenship.

For the ruling establishment, the survey offers validation of its core narrative on safeguarding Assam’s identity and security. However, the strong demand for fairness and humanitarian safeguards — especially among Muslim respondents — signals that the political costs of perceived excesses or errors in implementation could be significant.

The January 2026 India Today–CVoter MOTN survey shows that Assam’s illegal immigration drive enjoys majority support, but not without serious caveats. While many see it as necessary for protecting the state’s identity and security, a large section wants safeguards against injustice, and a meaningful minority fears that the process could target innocents.