NDA govt enjoys majority approval, Himanta Biswa Sarma leads CM race; unemployment and rising prices top concerns: Survey

A fresh public opinion survey released under the State Vibe series by Vote Vibe LLP suggests that the ruling National Democratic Alliance government in Assam continues to enjoy majority approval ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma maintaining an edge in the preferred chief minister race against Gaurav Gogoi of the Indian National Congress.

The survey, conducted through the Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) method, covered 2,616 respondents across Assam. The sample included 52% male and 48% female respondents, with 80% from rural areas and 20% from urban centres. 

Social representation in the survey included SC (7%), ST (12%), OBC (19%), General (22%), Muslims (35%), Christians (4%) and others (1%). Youth aged 18–24 accounted for 22% of the respondents, while senior citizens (55+) made up 18%, with the margin of error estimated at ±3%. 

Government Performance

The survey indicates that the incumbent NDA government retains a positive public perception, with 55.6% of respondents rating the government’s performance as either “Excellent” or “Good.” While this reflects a clear majority, the report notes that it does not amount to an overwhelming endorsement. 

Community-wise responses reveal notable variation. The Scheduled Caste community recorded the highest satisfaction levels, with 71% expressing positive views, while Muslim respondents were the most critical, with only 44% giving a positive rating and 35% describing the performance as “Poor” or “Very Poor.”

Age also played a significant role in shaping perceptions. Senior citizens aged 55 and above showed the highest approval levels at 66%, whereas younger voters aged 18–24 were comparatively more critical, with only 56% expressing satisfaction and 29% rating the government poorly. 

Next Chief Minister Preference

In the race for the next chief minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma leads with 46.6% support, compared with 41.7% for Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi, indicating a narrow but noticeable gap between the two leaders. 

The survey highlights a generational divide in leadership preference. Among youth aged 18–24, Gaurav Gogoi leads decisively with 61% support compared to Sarma’s 25%.

However, Sarma enjoys strong backing among several social groups, including General category voters (79%), OBCs (69%), and Scheduled Castes (72%). Gogoi, on the other hand, commands strong support among Muslim voters, with 65% backing him.

Gender differences were also visible in the findings. Women respondents showed stronger support for Sarma, with 51% favouring him compared to 36% for Gogoi, while male respondents were more evenly divided, with Gogoi slightly ahead at 47% compared to Sarma’s 43%. 

Key Issues for Voters

The survey identifies unemployment as the single biggest concern among voters, cited by 25.6% of respondents. The issue is particularly prominent among young voters (34%) and Muslim respondents (31%). 

The second major concern is floods and rehabilitation (19.6%), reflecting Assam’s recurring vulnerability to seasonal flooding.

Alcoholism and drug abuse rank third at 12.9%, with the issue especially pronounced among OBC respondents, where it peaks at 20%.

Other concerns include corruption (9.9%), particularly among voters aged 45–54, and the investigation into the death of Assamese singer Zubeen Garg, which appears as a distinct concern for 7.4% of respondents. 

What the Government Is Doing Right

The survey suggests that the government’s strongest perceived achievements lie in law and order and infrastructure development.

Law and order was cited by 20.5% of respondents as the most satisfying aspect of governance, closely followed by infrastructure improvements at 20.4%.

Together, these two areas account for 40.9% of the positive perception regarding the government’s performance, indicating that these sectors form the core of the administration’s governance narrative. 

Public Grievances

Despite the positive ratings in certain areas, the survey highlights rising prices as the most significant grievance, with 36.3% of respondents identifying inflation as their primary concern.

Unemployment ranks second among grievances at 27.1%. Combined, these two issues account for 63.4% of the total dissatisfaction among respondents, underscoring the economic anxieties among voters.

Among voters aged 35–44, concern over rising prices is particularly pronounced, reaching 49%. 

‘Miya’ Comment Controversy

The survey also examined public opinion regarding Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s controversial remarks involving the term “Miya.”

A majority of respondents (55.4%) said they either fully or somewhat support the statement, while 21.7% oppose it and 22.8% remain neutral or undecided. 

Support for the remark shows strong variation across communities. General category respondents showed the highest support at 83%, followed by OBCs at 70% and SC respondents at 77%.

In contrast, Muslim respondents were largely critical, with 44% opposing the statement and only 26% expressing support.

Women respondents were also found to support the statement more strongly than men, 61% compared to 51%, while support rose to 68% among voters aged 55 and above. 

Impact of Cash Transfer Schemes

Another key question examined the political impact of the government’s cash transfer schemes targeting youth, women and tea garden workers.

According to the survey, 54.2% of respondents believe these schemes are electorally beneficial for the BJP, either by consolidating its existing voter base (36%) or helping it attract opposition voters (18.2%). 

However, 15.8% expressed concern that such schemes could strain state finances. Skepticism was highest among Muslim respondents, 26% of whom felt the schemes indicate a lack of confidence on the part of the ruling party.

Among senior citizens aged 55 and above, 29% expressed concerns about fiscal strain resulting from these welfare measures. 

Overall Electoral Picture

The survey concludes that the ruling NDA enters the 2026 Assembly election cycle with relatively high approval ratings, giving Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma a lead in the leadership race.

However, the data also suggests that Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi enjoys strong support among younger voters and minority communities, indicating potential areas of electoral contestation.

The report characterises the emerging contest as a “pro-incumbency test” for the BJP and a “comeback test” for the Congress, setting the stage for a competitive political battle in the upcoming Assam Assembly elections.