With 16 of the 25 seats, the northeast remains with NDA: India Today MOTN poll

The NDA is likely to put up a dominant show and win 16 of the 25 seats in Northeast if the Lok Sabha elections were held today, according to the India Today-CVoter Mood of the National opinion poll. 

The survey projects a dominant NDA performance over INDI Bloc.

The India Today-Cvoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll, conducted from January 2 to February 9, 2025, collected responses from 125,123 individuals across all Lok Sabha segments. This extensive survey combined fresh interviews with long-term tracking data, providing a comprehensive analysis of voter sentiment in the region.

In terms of vote share, the NDA, which won 292 seats - barely crossing the halfway mark of 272, is projected to see a rise by 3 percentage points to 47%. For the INDIA bloc, the poll predicts just a 1% rise in vote share, mirroring its falling stocks in subsequent electoral contests after the Lok Sabha polls amid infighting.

The survey projects massive gains for the BJP, giving it 281 seats if the polls were held today. The Congress is likely to see a dip to 78 seats, down from the 99 it won in the elections. Individually, the BJP is projected to see its vote share rise to 41%, a jump of 3 percentage points, while the Congress will stand to see its share down to 20%.

Lok Sabha election results in northeast India

The eight northeastern states—Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland, Mizoram, and Sikkim—collectively hold 25 Lok Sabha seats. Assam, the most politically influential among them, has 14 seats, while Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, and Tripura each have two. Nagaland, Mizoram, and Sikkim have one parliamentary seat each. The results of the Lok Sabha elections in the region were declared on May 5, 2024.

Assam: NDA's stronghold maintained

Assam reaffirmed its status as an NDA bastion, with the alliance clinching 11 out of 14 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured nine seats, while its allies, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the United People's Party Liberal (UPPL), won Barpeta and Kokrajhar, respectively. AGP's victory in Barpeta marks its return to the Lok Sabha after a decade, whereas UPPL's triumph in Kokrajhar signifies its parliamentary debut.

Despite a marginal rise in vote shares for both the BJP and Congress—BJP increasing from 36.41% in 2019 to 37.43% in 2024, and Congress from 35.79% to 37.48%—the overall NDA vote share dipped slightly by 0.45%.

The Congress, as part of the 16-party United Opposition Forum Assam (UOFA), contested 13 seats, while Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) fielded a candidate in one constituency. Other opposition parties, including the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), also contested, with AIUDF filing nominations for three seats and AAP for two.

Manipur

The 2024 elections in Manipur garnered nationwide attention due to ongoing ethnic violence, which placed the ruling BJP on the defensive. Congress made a strong comeback by winning both seats.

Inner Manipur: Congress candidate Angomcha Bimol Akoijam secured a decisive victory, defeating the BJP contender by 1,09,801 votes.

Outer Manipur: Alfred Kanngam S Arthur of Congress won with a margin of 85,418 votes, reclaiming the seat that the BJP's ally Naga People’s Front (NPF) had won in 2019.

Arunachal Pradesh: BJP's continued dominance

In Arunachal Pradesh, BJP retained both parliamentary seats:

Arunachal East: BJP’s Tapir Gao triumphed over Congress' Bosiram Siram and Arunachal Democratic Party’s Bandey Mili.

Arunachal West: Union Minister of Earth Sciences Kiren Rijiju secured re-election.

The state also witnessed a landslide BJP victory in the simultaneous assembly elections, with the party winning 46 out of 60 seats.

Meghalaya and Nagaland: Setbacks for NDA

Meghalaya: The National People's Party (NPP), an NDA ally, lost both seats. In Tura, Congress ousted incumbent MP Agatha Sangma, while the Shillong seat went to the Voice of the People Party (VPP), a rising regional force.

Nagaland: The Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), a BJP ally, failed to retain its sole parliamentary seat, as Congress’ S Supongmeren Jamir won by 50,984 votes, marking the party’s first Lok Sabha victory in the state in two decades.

Tripura: BJP Retains Both Seats with New Faces

The BJP continued its stronghold in Tripura, securing both Lok Sabha seats, but with new candidates:

Tripura West: Former Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb emerged victorious.

Tripura East: Kirti Devi Debbarman won, further cementing BJP’s presence in the state.

Mizoram: Rise of regional politics

In a closely contested race, Richard Vanlalhmangaiha of the Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) won the state’s only parliamentary seat, defeating K Vanlalvena by 68,288 votes. The victory highlights the increasing influence of regional parties in Mizoram.

Sikkim: SKM's clean sweep in Lok Sabha elections

The Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM), an NDA ally, secured a landslide victory in the state. SKM’s Indra Hang Subba retained the state's sole parliamentary seat with a winning margin of 80,830 votes.

NDA maintains strong presence despite minor setbacks

The India Today-CVoter survey results and Lok Sabha election outcomes reaffirm NDA's stronghold in the Northeast, particularly in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. However, losses in Meghalaya and Nagaland underscore emerging regional dynamics and opposition resurgence in key states.