India Today Exit Poll: Gaurav Gogoi likely to lose in Jorhat, Congress to win Dhubri and Nagaon

According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, BJP candidate Topon Kumar Gogoi has emerged as a strong candidate against Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi in the battle of Jorhat and that he is likely to win the Lok Sabha seat. 

As per the exit poll predictions, the Congress is likely to not open its account in Upper Assam (where Jorhat is located), while the BJP are projected to win 3 seats.

After the delimitation process in Assam, Gaurav who was earlier contesting from Kaliabor switched to Jorhat, the seat which sent his father, Tarun Gogoi to the Lok Sabha twice.  

Tarun Gogoi, the former chief minister of Assam, also won from Titabor Assemby seat, which is a part of the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency.

Jorhat, boasting a notable Ahom demographic, saw a compelling competition between Gaurav Gogoi and his BJP rival, Topon Gogoi, both belonging to the Ahom community, adding an intriguing dimension to the race.

However, in middle and lower Assam, the political scenario is a bit different. 

As per the exit poll predictions, the Congress is predicted to bag 1 seat in Dhubri which is situated in Lower Assam, while BJP and its allies - AGP and UPPL - are expected to win one and two seats respectively. Whereas in Nagaon, located in Middle Assam, the Congress is expected to bag 1 seat.

It is interesting to note that the Congress is likely to win only the Muslim dominated seats of Dhubri and Nagaon.

One of the most closely watched electoral battles unfolded in Dhubri, where AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal encountered a formidable challenge from Congress leader Rakibul Hussain. Notably, Hussain currently serves as an MLA from Samaguri in the Nagaon district. 

As Ajmal seeks to maintain his stronghold, Deputy Leader of Opposition in the Assam Assembly, Rakibul Hussain, and AGP's Zabed Islam are aiming to create an upset in this AIUDF bastion. Ajmal has been the representative of the Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency since 2009, while Hussain has held the Samaguri constituency since 2001.

Badruddin Ajmal frequently criticises his Congress rival, Rakibul Hussain, in his speeches. Ajmal accuses Hussain of neglecting Dhubri during his 15-year tenure as a minister in the Assam government. Hussain, on the other hand, referred to Badruddin Ajmal as an "old tiger" in April this year. In response, Ajmal said, "I am not so old. I can marry again."

The outcome of this contest is poised to shape the trajectory of the AIUDF within Assam's intricate political landscape.

Ajmal, who established the party in 2005, has been a vocal advocate for representing the interests of Muslims of immigrant origin. With Dhubri district boasting an approximate 80 per cent Muslim population, a significant majority of whom are of immigrant descent, the electoral dynamics hold immense significance. 

The outcome of this contest will determine the future of the AIUDF in Assam’s political landscape.

The Nagaon constituency has seen a pattern of different parties winning over the years. It has been a BJP bastion with its candidate Rajen Gohain winning the seat in four consecutive terms from 1999 to 2014. The BJP lost the seat when it replaced Gohain with Congress’s Rupak Sarmah in 2019.

Nagaon is one of the three Lok Sabha seats that the AIUDF is contesting. Dhubri and Karimganj are the other two. Badruddin Ajmal enjoys the support of Bengali-speaking Muslims in Assam and has fielded a heavyweight from Nagaon.

In the 2019 general elections, the AIUDF chose not to nominate a candidate for the seat, leading to a consolidation of minority votes in favor of the Congress.

But, this time, Aminul Islam, the Mankachar MLA since 2021 and AIUDF's General Secretary (Organisation), is contesting from Nagaon. 

Aminul Islam claimed "The main fight in Nowgong seat will be between the AIUDF and the BJP. Congress is not in the position and the security deposit will be seized. There is no existence of the Congress here." said Aminul Islam. 

However, the exit polls results are indicating something different.