Plastic emissions could double global health damage by 2040: Study

Health damage linked to emissions from the global plastics system could more than double by 2040 compared with 2016 levels if current production and waste trends continue, according to a new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health.

The research finds that greenhouse gases, air-polluting particles and toxic chemicals released across the plastics lifecycle are driving rising risks of global warming, air pollution–related illness, cancers linked to toxicity, and other non-communicable diseases. The sharpest harms come from primary plastics production and the open burning of plastic waste.

Researchers also warn that global plastic production may not peak until after 2100, locking in long-term environmental and health pressures in a system already under strain.

The study, led by scientists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine with partners in France, is the first global-scale assessment to estimate health impacts from plastics using disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). It tracks emissions from raw material extraction and polymer production through waste collection, recycling, dumpsites, open burning and environmental leakage.

“Emissions throughout plastics lifecycles contributed to human health burdens of global warming, air pollution, toxicity-related cancers, and non-communicable diseases,” the authors wrote. Under business-as-usual projections, “adverse health effects associated with the global plastics system more than doubled” between 2016 and 2040.

A key obstacle to effective regulation, the researchers said, is the lack of transparency around what plastics contain. Non-disclosure of chemical composition is “severely limiting” lifecycle assessments and weakens the evidence base for policy decisions.

The modelling framework developed in the study is designed to be updated as new data emerge, allowing governments to compare the health impacts of plastics, alternatives and substitutes as policies evolve. Based on current evidence, the framework points to deep cuts in primary, or virgin, plastic production as central to reducing harm, alongside assessments that consider how plastics are used across different sectors.

The authors argue that isolated measures will not be enough. A globally coordinated approach that tackles plastics from production to disposal is “crucial to protecting human health”.

The findings come as negotiations continue on a Global Plastics Treaty, backed by more than 175 countries. The researchers say the health evidence strengthens the case for tougher controls, particularly on new plastics for non-essential uses, to curb emissions and reduce the growing burden on public health systems worldwide.