India might record 2.8 lakh Covid19 cases per day by 2021 end, says study

Researchers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have warned that India might record 2.87 lakh coronavirus cases per day by the end of winter 2021 -- in case no proper Covid19 vaccine or drug is developed.

The study was conducted by researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman of MIT's Sloan School of Management.

The world may witness 249 million (24.9 crore) cases and 1.8 million (18 lakh) deaths by spring 2021 if there are no effective treatments or vaccination, they said.

Also read: Assam: Guwahati reports over 3000 COVID-19 cases in last 7 days

According to the study, the top 10 countries by projected daily infection rates at the end of winter 2021 are India, US, South Africa, Iran, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, France and Germany.

India will be the worst affected country due to Covid19 followed by the US (95,000 cases per day), South Africa (21,000 cases per day) Iran (17,000 cases per day), and Indonesia (13,000 cases per day) at the end of winter 2021.

For the findings, the MIT research team use a multi-country modified SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, a standard mathematical model for infectious diseases used by epidemiologists, to simultaneously estimate the transmission of Covid19 in 84 countries (4.75 billion people).

The model tracked community transmission, excluding the global travel network and instead separately estimating the date of introduction of patient zero for each country, as reported by WION NEWS.

Within each country, the core of the model tracks the population through susceptible, pre-symptomatic, infected pre-testing, infected post-testing, and recovered states.

India Covid19 cases so far

India recorded the highest-ever daily spike of 22,752 Covid19 cases and 482 deaths in the last 24 hours, pushing the total tally to 742417 lakh. The death toll is now 20642, as per data released by the Union Health Ministry. Active cases in India stand at 264944 while 456831 have been cured or discharged so far.

Among the states, Maharashtra is the first state to cross 6 thousand Covid19 deaths. It has recorded 217121 corona cases with 118558 cured, 9250 deaths, and 89313 active cases. The western state is followed by Delhi and Tamil Nadu. Delhi has corona 102831 cases with 74217 cured, 3165 deaths, and 25449 active cases. Tamil Nadu has 118594 positive cases with 71116 cured, 1636 deaths 45842 active cases. Gujarat with 37550 Covid19 cases, so far, has 26720 have been cured, 1977 deaths, and 8853 active cases.

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