La Nina forecasted to impact Indian monsoon season

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center has issued predictions indicating that India is expected to witness above-normal precipitation during its peak monsoon season from July to September. This forecast follows the recent transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions, as predicted by the ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) alert system.

The APCC Climate Center's outlook for July to September highlights an enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation across various regions, including eastern Africa, the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal, and Indonesia. Additionally, some areas in East Asia and northern Australia are anticipated to experience a tendency for above-normal rainfall.

The ENSO alert system update issued on March 15, 2024, forecasts a La Nina WATCH status for the period from April to September 2024. This alert underscores the importance of closely monitoring climate patterns due to potential impacts associated with La Nina conditions, such as altered weather patterns and environmental consequences.

Furthermore, the recent multi-model ensemble (MME) temperature probability forecast indicates varying levels of accuracy in predicting temperature deviations for April to June 2024. Europe and Southern Asia demonstrate high forecast reliability, with Heidke Skill Scores (HSS) of 66.9% and 82.0%, respectively. However, Africa exhibits relatively lower forecast accuracy, with an HSS of 5.5%.

Overall, the global HSS stands at 65.8%, with different regions displaying varying levels of forecast reliability based on historical data. These forecasts serve as crucial insights for stakeholders and policymakers, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to mitigate potential impacts of La Nina on the Indian monsoon season.