Focus shifts to Nandigram and Rejinagar as Bengal looks for a opposition to fill the void

In India’s quasi-federal structure, the first few months after a new government comes to power in a state is usually mundane. There isn’t a lot that happens. The status quo remains on most issues as the new party in power tries to understand the nuances of the administration and tries to roll out the promises that it made during the polls. The principal opposition on the other hand tries to get its act together. States like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which recently saw a change in governments, are a good example of it. But West Bengal is different, and the political situation in the state has been unprecedented in the last few months ever since the Bharatiya Janata Party defeated the All India Trinamool Congress by a landslide majority to take control of the state.

TMC in shambles as Factionalism and Splits push the party on the back foot

Since 4th May 2026, the All India Trinamool Congress has split into three factions. For a party that won 80 seats and secured nearly 41 per cent vote share in a fiercely contested election, this comes as a major surprise. The first major setback came for TMC on the eve of the Falta repoll as Jahangir Khan withdrew from the contest. Khan's decision from Khan saw TMC sliding to the 4th position as CPIM’s Shambhu Nath Kurmi secured the second place, while BJP won by more than 1 lakh votes. Post that, Ritabrata Banerjee, along with Sandipan Saha and others, rebelled over the issue of appointing veteran Ballygunje MLA Sobhandeb Chattopadhyay as the Leader of Opposition. A rebel faction led by the Uluberia MLA and supported by heavyweights and former ministers like Firhad Hakim, Javed Khan, Arup Roy, Biplab Mitra, Akkhruzaman, etc approached the Speaker and staked claim to the LoP position with the support of 65 TMC MLAs. Their request was accepted and since then many former MPs, MLA’s and district-level strongmen such as Anubrata Mandal, Jyotipriya Mallick have joined the faction. Even one of Mamata Banerjee's oldest loyalists, Madan Mitra, has joined the bloc recently. The third faction is the bloc of 20 MPs who have separated from the party and joined the NCPI, a registered yet unrecognised political party of Tripura. This has led to abject confusion and chaos among the rank and file of the party, many of whom are completely uncertain of their future.

Vacuum in Bengal’s opposition space and the rise of CPIM and Congress

While the rebel faction of MLAs led by Leader of Opposition Ritabrata Banerjee have claimed that they’re going to fulfill the role of a constructive opposition, they haven’t been seen much on the ground, which has led to a big vacuum. In many places from 4th May onwards, the Congress party and the Left have managed to strengthen their base. CPIM among all the parties have been the most active on the ground with regard to every issue, including the NEET paper leak protests, which rocked Delhi and then spread to other metropolitan cities of the country.

Since 4th May, multiple big TMC leaders have joined the Congress. This includes the Chairman of the Mekhliganj Municipality, Prabhat Patni, who joined the grand old party with a majority of corporators, which handed the municipality to Congress. TMC’s district youth president of Malda and the candidate for Gazole assembly seat, Prasenjit Das, also joined Congress in the presence of senior leaders like Isha Khan Chowdhury and Mausam Noor. Corporator Bishwarup Chakraborty (Konnagar Municipality) and ex-MLA Dr Saptarshi Banerjee have also joined the Congress party in recent times.

Buoyed by these joinings, Congress has been active on the ground and has also been organising joinings of grassroot workers from TMC across various districts in the state. In areas like Malda and Murshidabad, both CPIM and Congress have been recovering lost ground with TMC in absolute shambles.

However, the biggest gain for the Marxists was the results of the Falta Assembly, where they managed to poll nearly 20 percent votes after repolling was arranged in the constituency. In the absence of TMC, the sizable chunk of Muslim voters in the region turned towards the left. Besides, CPIM has also taken control of a few local bodies at the rural level, especially in the Domkal region, from where their sole MLA, Mostafizur Rahaman Rana, won the elections this time.

Significance of Nandigram- Who occupies the opposition space?

Nandigram in Medinipore and Rejinagar in Murshidabad are going into by-elections on 6th October. The Nandigram seat had fallen vacant as current CM Suvendu Adhikari, who had contested from both Nandigram and Bhawanipur, retained the latter. On the other hand, Aam Janata Unnayan Party chief Humayun Kabir had contested from Naoda and Rejinagar in Murshidabad, and he decided to vacate the latter.

The electoral arithmetic in both these seats is vastly different, with both presenting a complex set of challenges. For BJP, Nandigram seems to be a done deal as the support is overwhelmingly in their favour. The question that is being asked in Bengal’s political circles is what the margin will be as they had won it by 10k votes during the assembly elections.

Here, both factions of TMC had put up candidates but the candidate of Mamata Banerjee’s faction withdrew her nomination. The rebel faction, which has been recognised as Democratic Trinamool Congress, has its candidate in the fray. Apart from them, Congress candidate Milan Pradhan and Communist Party of India candidate Shanti Gopal Giri are also contesting.

While the odds are heavily tilted towards BJP, there is quite a bit in it for the opposition too. BJP got 50 per cent of the votes in the seat during the recently held elections, while TMC’s Pabitra Kar got around 46% of the total votes polled. The seat has around 26% Muslim voters who make up roughly around 65K to 66K of the electorate. They’re almost concentrated solely in Nandigram Block I.

In the last three elections, this group had overwhelmingly favoured the Trinamool Congress. But this time, with the grass flower symbol being absent from the EVMs, it remains interesting to see as to who they prefer. With the Mamata Banerjee faction’s candidate having withdrawn, she decided to support the Congress candidate. This creates a situation where the muslim community might rally behind Congress, and with a section of the original TMC voters backing them, they might emerge as the main opposition party in elections. The Congress candidate Milan Pradhan is currently under arrest due to an old case related to 2007, and it might generate a bit of sympathy for him, which can work further in favour of the grand old party.

Rejinagar- The prestige fight amidst a neck-and-neck battle

The second seat in contention is Rejinagar, which is located in Murshidabad, the district having the highest concentration of Muslim voters in Bengal. The assembly segment of Rejinagar also has nearly 70 per cent Muslim voters, while the number of Hindu voters is estimated to be around 30 per cent. During the last Assembly elections, Humayun Kabir dominated with the issue of building a Babri Masjid, which appealed to a large section of the electorate and Kabir won the elections easily with a whopping margin of 58,000 votes and 51% of the vote. However, BJP achieved nearly absolute consolidation of Hindu voters, with them getting around 65K votes. This time though, the equations are different. BJP is the ruling party now, meaning that they have a lot more resources to contest here. For Congress, the seat is important since it gives them a chance to reclaim their traditional bastion, Murshidabad. District Congress president Mohammad Kafi is contesting here, and he is considered close to Former Union Minister and five-term MP Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury. The Marxists have also put forward their candidate in the form of Syed Asad Ali. On the other hand, Mamata Banerjee’s faction has given a ticket to former MLA from the seat, Rabiul Alam Chowdhury. He needs no introduction in the politics of the region and can also be a factor. RSP and the Rebel TMC faction are also in the mix.

Therefore, with such a massive number of players in the fray, Rejinagar provides BJP the golden opportunity to make inroads in a Muslim-majority constituency, with a multi-way vote split on the cards. The Hindu population in the region has been firmly behind the saffron brigade, and it is a formula which helped them win Beldanga in the last elections. There, the BJP candidate Bharat Jhawar had won with a mere 31 percent votes as the Muslim votes split between TMC, AJUP and Congress. For Humayun Kabir, it is a prestige fight since his own son Golam Nabi Azad is contesting in his place. If he can get his son to win in a tough contest, it will only bolster his presence in the district politics and make the equations more complicated for parties like Congress and CPIM who are looking to regain lost ground. Otherwise, if Congress/CPIM can spring an upset, it will see them on the upward curve in the state.

Conclusion

Thus, what happens on 6th of October will not merely decide the fate of two constituencies but will give a broader political trend for the whole state. If one goes by history, the mighty behemoth of CPIM crumbled in less than a year after they had lost for the second time to TMC. Back then, BJP had occupied the opposition space in the Kanthi Dakshin By-election as they secured 31 percent votes. It began a journey which spanned 9 years and eventually helped them win Bengal in 2026.

The question, therefore, is not whether TMC survives; it is about who is prepared to take over when the edifice crumbles to dust.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Today NE or its affiliates)