The state of Manipur after more than a year of communal violence

The present situation in Manipur is not ok. Peace and security of lives is still at bay. Claims that peace has returned in the state is far from truth. Lives are lived at one’s own peril. While the political health of the state continues to reel in disarray the search for political solution to the crisis remains grim. Attempts orchestrated by the present leadership to instill law and order and assuage the political crisis has failed time and time again. The state is heading without a goal post. Community wise population demography in the districts has overturned. It appears that the center government has alienated Manipur and nonchalantly brandished a red card to the state and its people without dispensing justice with compassion. On the other hand, the Chief Minister and his kitchen cabinets in their effort to protect their chairs appear to be applauding the stark silence of the center meted out to the state for over 400 days. The present government seems to have outlived its relevance. The pond is already very muddy and still there are no visible signs of change. 

The victory of INC over BJP and its allies in the recently held parliamentary elections in Manipur is a reflection of the pent-up emotions of the people. The electorate has voted for change. In the valley, the Arambai Tenggol, the high-handed militia a.k.a unofficial soldiers of CM even at the cost of shedding lives and property fell short of their macabre target to bring back BJP to power. In the midst of the unsettling political situation, Kuki-Zo leadership took a bold decision and abstained from contesting the election. Accordingly, not a single Kuki Zo candidate contested the election. Though mass population of Kuki Zo inhabited districts abstained from voting, some population in Churachandpur exercised their franchise. Eventually, the result of the parliamentary election has relieved and restored some faith in the hearts of many.

Now with the elections getting over and Modi/BJP coming into power for the third consecutive time what can we expect. At first, gather we must that the present Modi government has fallen short of majority which requires 272 seats in the Lok Sabha. BJP has 240 seats and along with their NDA alliance it has a total of 303 seats. The 63 seats are like temporary friends yet to establish loyalty. These newly minted friends can and probably will only stick with NDA so long as it serves their purposes. As a result of this, BJP must always keep their ventilators handy to address any casualty within the party. This constant caution, if sustained on BJP can wreck their spine and arrogance. As a result of the Nitish-Naidu Alliance (a.k.a NNA, not NDA) BJP will now have to take everyone on board catapulting the opposition with a greater say unlike before. 

Let us study the Naga peace talk before we dive into the demand for separate administration by Kuki Zo. The Indo-Naga peace talk has been strolling for over 60 years and still there is no near sign of a political solution to this stalemate. The demand raised by the NSCN (IM) for territorial integrity and separate constitution/flag is outside the purview of the Indian constitution. The centre cannot resort to this. Still, the centre is not answering with a blatant No. Is the centre playing delaying tactics? It is also learned that many in the present NSCN leadership have grown comfortable with the status quo. IB, RAW, NIA and other intelligence agencies have gathered success in prompting the lives of IM leaders more comfortable than before. It becomes imperative to ponder whether the centre is simply waiting for the present NSCN leadership to wane away and propel a dialogue with the new breed of leaders with lesser zeal and aspirations. 

The demand for Separate Administration (SA) raised by the Kuki Zo community after the eruption of communal violence in Manipur warrant heightened awareness. What is being demanded is a Union Territory with a legislature (Assembly) which will be directly governed by the centre and where Manipur government will not be involved in administration or financial matters. Article 239 entails provisions for creation of a Union Territory in the country. Out of the 9 (nine) UT’s in India Delhi, Puducherry and J&K have their own legislatures. Past incidences have witnessed that a Union Territory is usually carved out of a state due to various political, ethnic and administrative compulsions. At present, it is evident that the Kuki Zo population will not venture back to their erstwhile homes in the valley where the Meiteis are residing and the Meiteis from the valley will not return to the Kuki Zo inhabited hill districts of Manipur. Displaced sheltered in the relief camps have reached saturation level. The divide is established both geographically and demographically. The hurt is too deep between the Kuki Zo and Meitei communities compounded by loss of lives and property. Any effort for causing a dialogue can be regarded as a futile exercise now as it has since May, 2023. Therefore, the aspirations of the people of Manipur rests with the leadership at the centre. 

What Manipur has witnessed since 3rd May, 2023 is an episode to behold. Mayhem, anarchy, deaths, displacement, wanton destruction of property have been the order of the day. The common man has been on the receiving end of the ethnic cleansing unleashed by the state. Despite atrocities and complete failure for restoration of law and order in the state the Prime Minister sits comfortably numb. The silence of the Prime Minister has raised serious doubts. Is the PM justified with himself or whether enjoying worldwide recognition has become a passport to neglect Manipur. Is vote above lives. Does anyone gain from this communal violence. Is the centre waiting for both communities to settle their differences on their own sans intervention of the centre. Both Naga Peace talks and demand for separate administration are placed at the table of the centre government. One is a 60 year old and still dragging while the other is a newborn demand. How the centre government addresses these demands will lean on the stakes they carry and how they are being lobbied by stakeholders. 

While demands for political solution hangs in suspense, the political echelons in the state responsible for this unrest are glued to their chairs watching the unfolding of events. In the midst, the displaced and affected are left with no choice but to withstand and hope for restoration of peace and order so that one day they could return home. Meanwhile, victims of communal violence taking shelter at Relief Camps requires constant upkeep and maintenance. Manipur needs peace, security of life and freedom of movement. The centre government must initiate measures and work across party lines to restore order and balance of power. Our hopes ignite to witness a day where tears of distress now be steered into tears of unbridled joy.