Why Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma is losing popularity

In the India Today Mood of the Nation Poll (MOTN), published in August, 49 per cent of the respondents in Assam expressed satisfaction with chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s performance. He was found to be the fifth most popular chief minister within his home state. This should have pleased the first-time chief minister as he is ahead of 25 other state heads, including veterans such as Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Ashok Gehlot, Mamata Banerjee and Pinarayi Vijayan. But this comparative advantage is no reason for Sarma to feel complacent about his performance.  
  
In fact, the current rank and the share of population expressing satisfaction with the Assam chief minister’s performance have significantly dropped since January, when the previous MOTN was conducted. In the January MOTN poll, 68 per cent respondents in Assam were happy with Sarma’s performance, making him the third most popular chief minister within the home state. In August 2022, 63 per cent of the MOTN respondents expressed satisfaction with his performance. 
  
Since Sarma took charge as the CM of Assam in May 2021, this has been the lowest percentage of respondents positively reviewing his performance. Till now, he had been continuing as the most popular BJP chief minister in their home states. Not anymore as Gujarat chief minister Bhupendrabhai Patel is now the most popular (within home state) among BJP CMs. 
  
This drop in Sarma’s popularity has come at a time when the Assam BJP has been witnessing a series of factional feuds and a serious allegation of corruption. Several leaders who have been associated with the saffron party for many decades have alleged that they are being overlooked and sidelined. They have also publicly stated that the new entrants are not in sync with the BJP’s ideology but are cornering all positions of power in the party and government. There has also been discontent within the party over the recent delimitation process in the state. 
 
Former Union minister Rajen Gohain, a four-time BJP MP from Assam, former BJP state unit president and former minister Siddhartha Bhattacharya and former MLA Ashok Sarma are some of the senior leaders who had spoken about the alleged neglect of the BJP old guard in the state. On August 25, Gohain met Union home minister Amit Shah in New Delhi to complain about the old vs new battle within the BJP. A week earlier, Gohain had resigned as chairman of the Assam Food and Civil Supplies Corporation in protest against the delimitation of the Nagaon Lok Sabha seat, which he had represented four consecutive times. He claims the delimitation has increased the share of Muslim voters to such extent that it will facilitate victory of the AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front), a party primarily representing Bangla-speaking Muslims of immigrant origin, in the Lok Sabha polls.  
  
On August 18, in a letter to Sarma, Gohain had stated that the delimitation (which led to the reorganisation of the constituency’s area) had rendered the Nagaon seat “unwinnable for BJP candidates in the future and also put people of the constituency under threat due to demographic change”. “I feel betrayed and almost disrespected that a senior member like me was not heard by his own party leaders on a genuine concern for the party’s benefit,” the letter stated. 
  
In its notification issued on August 11, the Election Commission (EC) reorganised the geographic areas of 126 assembly and 14 Lok Sabha constituencies in Assam while reserving 19 assembly and two Lok Sabha seats for Scheduled Tribes (STs) and nine assembly and one Lok Sabha seat for Scheduled Castes (SCs). 
  
Two days prior to Gohain’s letter to Sarma, Bhattacharya had written to BJP state chief Bhabesh Kalita. Bhattacharya was the BJP president when Sarma and nearly a dozen of his followers had joined the party from the Congress in 2015. Though Bhattacharya got a ministry in the first-ever BJP government in Assam under chief minister Sarbandana Sonowal between 2016 and 2021, Sarma did not include him in his cabinet. Though Bhattacharya’s letter to Kalita was in connection with the latter’s name getting dragged into the recent suicide of a woman party leader over the alleged leak of her intimate photos with another BJP leader and accusations against the duo of taking money from job applicants by promising them posts, the letter hinted at the old vs new conflict within the BJP. 
  
“I have been selflessly serving the party since its initial bad days till today...but since the past few years, I have started noticing that no major duties are given to us...it’s sad that many conspiracies against senior BJP workers like me are being undertaken within the party…this is being done by a section of rootless so-called BJP workers who are not aligned to the party’s ideology and policies...the recent incident in which my name is being dragged is part of that same conspiracy to destroy senior and old party workers,” read the letter. Without taking any names, former MLA Ashok Sarma had earlier told reporters that some people who had joined the BJP in 2015 had been conspiring to ‘chase away’ old party workers. 
  
In response to Gohain’s statements, cabinet minister Jayanta Malla Baruah, a close confidant of Sarma who had joined the BJP from the Congress in 2015, advised the 72-year-old leader to take retirement and play with his grandchildren. Baruah, though, later said his words were misrepresented, and he meant no disrespect to the seniors. Amid this war of words, the chief minister has rubbished these allegations of neglect by old timers, saying there was no distinction between old and new BJP workers in Assam. 
  
Meanwhile, the suicide of Assam BJP Kisan Morcha leader Indrani Tahbildar has snowballed into a major ‘cash-for-job scam’, causing a major embarrassment to the Sarma government. The police have arrested five persons—either BJP members or with some connections—for their alleged role in the scam. Tahbildar died by suicide on August 11 after her intimate photos with another BJP member went viral on social media. 
  
While probing the circumstances that led to her suicide, police stumbled into a massive recruitment scam in which Tahbildar and several other BJP leaders allegedly took money from hundreds of people promising them jobs. In the FIR, Tahbildar’s husband had named BJP leader Anurag Chaliha as the prime suspect behind the viral photo. Following his arrest by the police, scores of admit cards of various government jobs were recovered from his home. Audio clips of conversations between the deceased and her colleagues also exposed that they had collected money from vulnerable candidates. Police sources claim that during interrogation, the arrested suspects have named several senior BJP leaders for their alleged involvement in the scam.  
  
Ever since Sarma came to power, he has often claimed that his government has ensured 100 per cent transparency in job recruitment processes. Many candidates openly announced that they got jobs without paying a single rupee as bribe. Though none of those who had allegedly paid bribe to the arrested five in the cash-for-job scam reportedly got any job, the recent expose has seriously dented the public image of both the BJP and its government in Assam. The government has swung into action but Sarma certainly has a tough task ahead to put the house in order.