Assam Government scores 58 per cent approval, CM race turns sharply polarised: Survey

As Assam inches closer to the 2026 Assembly elections, a latest opinion survey has indicated that while a clear majority of respondents approve the performance of Himanta Biswa Sarma-led Assam government, the contest for the state’s next Chief Minister is shaping up to be intensely competitive, with sharp variations across communities.

According to the survey, conducted by Vote Vibe under its StateVibe series, revealed, 58 per cent of respondents rated the Assam government’s performance over the past five years as either “Excellent” or “Good,” signalling a solid endorsement of the BJP-led administration’s governance record.

38.1 per cent described the government’s performance as 'Excellent'

19.9 per cent rated it as 'Good'

12.6 per cent termed it 'Average'

23.4 per cent expressed dissatisfaction, rating it 'Poor' or 'Very Poor'

6 per cent remained undecided

The data reveals that approval levels are significantly higher among older voters and among SC, ST, OBC and General category respondents, indicating that the government’s policies and outreach have resonated strongly with these groups. However, Muslim respondents recorded comparatively lower satisfaction levels, highlighting a critical fault line in public perception.

CM Choice: Himanta leads, Gogoi closes in

On the question of leadership preference for the next Chief Minister of Assam, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma holds a narrow lead with 48.2 per cent support, while Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi follows closely at 42 per cent. Other political leaders trail far behind, receiving only marginal backing.

The numbers suggest that while the BJP retains a slender edge statewide, the race for the top post is far from settled, with opposition forces consolidating support in key segments.

Muslim voters rally behind Gaurav Gogoi

The most politically significant takeaway from the survey is the sharp social group-wise polarisation in CM preference.

Among Muslim voters, a striking 79 per cent expressed support for Gaurav Gogoi as the next Chief Minister, while only 10 per cent backed Himanta Biswa Sarma. This overwhelming tilt underscores Gogoi’s growing acceptance within the minority community and signals a consolidation of Muslim votes behind the Congress leadership.

In contrast, SC, ST, OBC and General category voters largely favoured Himanta Biswa Sarma, reaffirming the BJP’s dominance across a broad cross-section of Assam’s social spectrum.

A competitive road to 2026

The report clarified that the findings are based on an opinion survey reflecting voter sentiment at the time of polling and do not constitute an election forecast. Like all surveys, the results are subject to sampling limitations and margins of error.

Nevertheless, the data paints a compelling picture of Assam’s evolving political landscape, one marked by strong approval for the incumbent government, a tightening chief ministerial race, and distinct demographic loyalties that could play a decisive role in shaping the 2026 Assembly elections.