Assam’s next CM? Himanta Biswa Sarma ahead, Gaurav Gogoi close behind: MOTN poll

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma continues to lead the race as the preferred choice for the state’s top post, according to the latest India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation opinion poll. Sarma secured 41 per cent support, edging out Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi, who polled 38 per cent, while Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal trailed at 11 per cent. Another 10 per cent of respondents either backed other names or chose not to respond.

With a 45 per cent satisfaction rating, Sarma’s governance model has fused Assamese sub-nationalism with the BJP’s nationalistic narrative, reinforced by eviction drives targeting alleged “illegal infiltrators” and welfare schemes reaching grassroots communities.

Yet, the survey also reveals a political opening, nearly one-third of voters say they want change, pointing to a simmering desire for an alternative.

That alternative could be Gaurav Gogoi, whose political stock rose sharply after the 2024 Lok Sabha election, when he defeated the BJP in Jorhat by a massive 1.44 lakh votes. Gogoi’s win was not just an electoral victory but also a symbolic blow to Sarma, who had thrown the weight of the state machinery against him after the abolition of his family bastion in Kaliabor through delimitation. His rise has positioned him as the Congress’s most credible CM face in years.

Meanwhile, Sarbananda Sonowal, once the BJP’s torchbearer in Assam, remains a distant third. A former firebrand student leader, Sonowal became Assam’s first BJP Chief Minister in 2016 before handing over the reins to Sarma in 2021. Now Union Minister for Ports, Shipping, Waterways, and Ayush, his political journey from AGP youth leader to Modi’s trusted lieutenant has been marked by resilience.

As Assam inches closer to its next assembly election cycle (Assam Assembly Election 2026), the poll underscores a triangular contest in perception but a binary political rivalry between Sarma and Gogoi one fuelled by BJP’s welfare-nationalism mix and the other by a rejuvenated Congress pitch under a young challenger.