BJP 69–74, Congress 25–29: Tracker Poll predicts NDA’s third term in Assam

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised for a third consecutive term in Assam, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) projected to register a commanding victory in the 2026 Assembly elections, according to the latest Tracker Poll conducted by People’s Pulse Research Organization. 

The survey, carried out between November 15 and December 31, 2025, suggests that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party with 69 to 74 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark on its own.

The projection places the NDA’s total tally close to the 90-seat mark when combined with its alliance partners. The Indian National Congress is forecast to secure between 25 and 29 seats, while NDA allies are expected to bolster the coalition’s strength, with Asom Gana Parishad projected to win 8 to 11 seats and the Bodoland People’s Front expected to secure 8 to 10 seats. 

Smaller parties are predicted to perform poorly, with the All India United Democratic Front projected at 0 to 2 seats, United People’s Party Liberal at 0 to 2, Raijor Dal at 1 to 2, Assam Jatiya Parishad at 0 to 1, CPI(M) at 0 to 1, and independents and others collectively at 0 to 1 seat.

The survey indicates that the NDA’s dominance is reinforced by a clear vote share advantage. The BJP is projected to secure 39 per cent of the vote, holding a narrow but decisive lead over the Congress at 37 per cent. 

Other parties trail significantly, with AGP at 7 per cent, BPF at 5.5 per cent, AIUDF at 2.5 per cent, UPPL at 1.2 per cent, Raijor Dal at 0.9 per cent, CPI(M) at 0.8 per cent, Assam Jatiya Parishad at 0.7 per cent, and others at 5 per cent. 

The survey attributes the Congress’s marginal vote share improvement largely to the erosion of AIUDF’s Muslim voter base, particularly in Barak Valley and Lower Assam.

Region-wise projections show the NDA maintaining a strong grip across Assam. 

In Upper Assam, the NDA is expected to dominate with minimal opposition resistance. Middle Assam is projected to witness a BJP–BPF sweep in the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts, while Lower Assam is expected to tilt towards the NDA following delimitation, with the BJP–AGP alliance gaining ground amid reduced Muslim influence. In Barak Valley, the NDA is projected to secure 8 to 10 seats post-delimitation.

The Tracker Poll also assessed public sentiment on governance and leadership. 

On development, 48 per cent of respondents said the BJP was better for Assam’s progress, compared to 38 per cent for the Congress. On government formation likelihood, 55 per cent predicted a BJP victory, against 40 per cent for the Congress. 

A similar 55 per cent believed the BJP deserved another term in office, while 45 per cent disagreed.

In the Chief Ministerial preference poll, incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma emerged marginally ahead with 30 per cent support, closely followed by former Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal at 28 per cent. Congress MP and state president Gaurav Gogoi registered 27 per cent, reflecting notable personal appeal despite the party’s broader challenges. 

Other leaders, including Debabrata Saikia, Hagrama Mohilary, Atul Bora, Dilip Saikia, Badruddin Ajmal and Akhil Gogoi, recorded single-digit support. 

Around 7 per cent of respondents remained undecided or preferred other options. 

The survey noted that while Gogoi’s popularity poses a challenge in the CM race, it has not translated into equivalent support for the Congress as a party, with Sarma’s lead strengthened by strong backing from women voters, including among tribal communities.

According to the survey analysis, Assam’s demographic diversity continues to play a decisive role, with Hindu Bengalis and OBC communities showing strong support for the BJP, while Muslim voters increasingly drift away from AIUDF towards the Congress. 

The poll highlights that AIUDF’s decline has been exacerbated by perceptions surrounding its leadership and alliances, leaving the party politically isolated. Smaller outfits such as Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad are seen as having limited influence confined to select pockets.

The report also underscores the impact of the 2023 delimitation exercise, welfare-driven beneficiary politics, and the BJP’s organisational depth in consolidating its base. The NDA’s sustained electoral successes since 2021, including local body elections, by-polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, have further strengthened its position. Analysts noted that the BJP has not only retained its core voters but expanded into new demographics, particularly among tribal and OBC communities.

The Tracker Poll was conducted through extensive fieldwork across all five divisions of Assam, covering all 35 districts. The study involved face-to-face interviews with over 5,000 respondents using a structured questionnaire designed to reflect caste, religion, age and gender representation. 

The research team also conducted qualitative interviews and consultations with local observers, journalists and political analysts to contextualise findings.

The survey is the first Tracker Poll ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections, with a second round planned for February or March 2026 following the formal announcement of the election schedule.