BJP surge in Assam, Congress gains ground while regional parties lose grip: MOTN poll

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised as the clear frontrunner, while the Congress appears to be regaining lost ground. Meanwhile, Assam’s regional parties are losing grip of their influence according to India TodayNE/CVoter - Mood of Assam poll.

The survey projects the BJP at 45 per cent vote share, a sharp increase from 33.21 per cent in 2021 Assembly Election, reflecting its consolidation across both Upper and Lower Assam. The Congress is projected at 36 per cent, up from 29.67 per cent, indicating a revival of its support base in traditional strongholds.

Conversely, regional outfits are on the decline. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), led by Atul Bora, has seen its support slump to 3 per cent from 7.91 per cent in 2021. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), under Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, is down to 2 per cent from 9.29 per cent. Similarly, the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) is at 1 per cent, while the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) maintains a modest 3 per cent, nearly unchanged from 2021. The Others/Independent/NOTA/Undecided category stands at 10 per cent, suggesting voter preferences are consolidating towards the two national parties.

The findings underscore the emergence of a bipolar political contest between the BJP and Congress, marginalizing regional players. BJP’s surge can be contributed for its ability to unify diverse voter bases, including indigenous communities, and its emphasis on development and national security. Congress, meanwhile, appears to be reclaiming parts of its traditional electorate, especially in districts where it once enjoyed strong support.

Assam, historically the cradle of regional political assertion, is witnessing a slow decline of regional parties’ relevance. Organizational challenges in parties like AGP, and the BPF’s inability to consolidate influence in the Bodoland Territorial Region post-2020, illustrate the weakening of local political structures. Additionally, regional parties’ focus on ethnic and localized issues seems less compelling to an electorate increasingly prioritizing development, stability, and governance.

With Assam moving closer to the 2026 Assembly elections, the survey suggests a national party-dominated contest, reshaping the state’s electoral landscape.