Mood of Assam: Himanta Biswa Sarma top choice as CM, Gaurav Gogoi close second but with a rider

The contest for Assam’s top post is shaping up as a straight fight between incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi, with the gap between the two well within striking distance, according to the India Today–CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey conducted in January 2026.

The survey places Himanta Biswa Sarma ahead in Chief Ministerial preference with 47.5 per cent support statewide. Gaurav Gogoi follows closely with 42.6 per cent, indicating a tightly contested race as Assam heads towards the 2026 Assembly elections.

The data points to a sharply polarised electorate. Himanta Biswa Sarma draws overwhelming support from Hindu voters, with 65.2 per cent naming him as their preferred Chief Minister. He also leads decisively among respondents classified under the ‘Others’ category, where 53.3 per cent back the incumbent.

In contrast, Gaurav Gogoi dominates among Muslim voters. The survey shows 76.4 per cent of Muslim respondents preferring Gogoi as Chief Minister, while Himanta Biswa Sarma secures 17.7 per cent support in this segment.

The findings underline a clear division in voting preference across communities, with the BJP-led government maintaining consolidation among non-Muslim voters, while the Congress challenger commands near-total support among Muslim respondents.

Beyond the two front-runners, the survey indicates limited traction for alternative Chief Ministerial candidates. Former Chief Minister and Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal registers 4.6 per cent support. Raijor Dal chief and Sivasagar MLA Akhil Gogoi follows at 1.4 per cent.

Other leaders remain marginal in the preference list. AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal records 0.5 per cent support, AGP leader and Assam cabinet minister Atul Bora stands at 0.4 per cent, and Assam Jatiya Parishad leader Lurinjyoti Gogoi also registers 0.4 per cent. Another 2.6 per cent of respondents favour “someone else.”

The survey suggests that Assam’s Chief Ministerial contest has largely narrowed to two principal contenders, with voter preference concentrated between Himanta Biswa Sarma and Gaurav Gogoi and little space for a third alternative.