Mood of Assam: Voters are restless yet reluctant to change BJP

The August edition of this year’s India Today Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll reveals a complex political landscape in Assam, where the ruling BJP maintains its electoral advantage even as significant portions of the electorate express anger with both state and central governments. For nearly 25 years, India Today’s Mood of the Nation surveys have tracked India’s shifting political winds. The August 2025 edition turns its spotlight on Assam, one of five states headed for assembly elections next year, and paints a picture of a state grappling with unemployment and security concerns while remaining cautiously supportive of its current leadership.

The survey shows the BJP commanding 45 percent of voter preference if elections were held today, representing a substantial 12-percentage-point increase from its 33.21 percent vote share in the 2021 Assembly elections. This surge comes despite widespread acknowledgment of governance challenges, suggesting the party has successfully consolidated its base while attracting new supporters.

The Congress, meanwhile, has gained ground from its 2021 performance, rising to 36 percent from 29.67 percent four years ago. However, this improvement falls short of challenging the BJP's dominance, leaving a nine-percentage-point gap between the two major parties. The findings indicate a clear bipolar contest emerging in Assam, with regional parties experiencing significant erosion in their support base.

The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) has seen its support collapse from 9.29 percent in 2021 to just 2 percent in the current survey. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), once a significant regional force, has similarly declined from 7.91 percent to 3 percent, suggesting voters are increasingly gravitating toward the two national parties.

The Himanta Paradox

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma emerges as a complex figure in the state’s political narrative. While 45 percent of respondents rate his performance as “good” and he commands a three-percentage-point lead over Congress’s Gaurav Gogoi (41 percent to 38 percent) in chief ministerial preference, the survey reveals significant underlying discontent with his administration.

Around, 65 percent of respondents express some level of anger with the Sarma-led state government, with 33 percent stating they are “angry but don’t want to change the government” and 32 percent wanting outright change. Only 28 percent express complete satisfaction with the current administration. This apparent contradiction suggests that while voters acknowledge governance shortcomings, they either lack confidence in alternatives or credit Sarma with managing difficult circumstances.

The phenomenon extends to the national level, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces similar dynamics. Despite 49 percent rating his performance as “good”, 64 percent of Assamese voters express some degree of anger with the Union government. Again, 34 percent remain angry but unwilling to change the government, while 30 percent desire change entirely.

Where are the jobs?

The survey identifies unemployment as Assam’s most pressing challenge, with 39 percent of respondents citing it as the state's biggest problem. This finding underscores the economic anxieties pervading the state, despite various government initiatives aimed at job creation and industrial development.

Immigration concerns rank as the second-most significant issue, with 18 percent highlighting “illegal infiltration from Bangladesh” as a major problem. This enduring concern reflects the state’s unique demographic and security challenges, particularly along its extensive international border. Corruption ties for second place at 18 percent, indicating persistent governance concerns despite the BJP's anti-corruption messaging.

The survey also reveals that traditional challenges like annual flooding, which once dominated Assam’s political discourse, now register as concerns for only 4 percent of respondents. This shift suggests either successful flood management or the emergence of more pressing economic and social issues that have overshadowed environmental concerns.

Ministerial Performance 

The evaluation of ministerial performance provides insights into which government departments resonate most strongly with voters. Education Minister Ranoj Pegu leads the rankings with 25 percent approval, while Information and Public Relations Minister Pijush Hazarika follows closely with 22 percent. Minister of Finance Ajanta Neog’s third-place position at 20 percent indicates recognition of social sector improvements, while Minister of Revenue and Disaster Management Keshab Mahanta and Minister for Panchayat & Rural Development Ranjeet Kumar Dass round out the top five with 16 percent and 11 percent respectively.

Opposition consolidation 

Gaurav Gogoi’s 38 percent showing in the chief ministerial stakes represents a significant consolidation of opposition support behind the Congress leader. While trailing Sarma, this figure suggests the party has successfully positioned itself as the primary alternative to BJP rule, potentially benefiting from the fragmentation of regional party support.

The survey’s findings suggest Assam is moving toward a more conventional two-party system, breaking from its historically fragmented political landscape. The decline of regional parties like AIUDF and AGP may benefit both major parties but particularly aids the Congress in presenting itself as the sole viable opposition force.

As Assam prepares for assembly elections next year, the survey reveals an electorate that remains broadly supportive of current leadership while harbouring significant concerns about governance and economic performance. The BJP’s ability to maintain its lead despite widespread expressions of anger suggests effective crisis management and successful messaging around security and development issues.