SIR exercise ignites polarization, 44.8 per cent back it: Survey

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise has clearly highlighted growing divisions within Assam’s society. According to the survey, 44.8 per cent of voters support the SIR exercise, while 11.3 per cent are against it.

The survey was conducted by VoteVibe under its StateVibe series and released ahead of the 2026 Assam Assembly elections. The findings show that while the ruling NDA is leading, it is not in a completely safe position. 

Far from a cakewalk, the survey paints a nail-biting 2026 contest where the NDA holds edges in governance perception and leadership favoritism, yet a razor-thin vote-share lead collides with youth unrest, factional Congress woes, and a massive undecided bloc. 

Infighting plagues the opposition at 25.5 per cent, compounded by weak organization, BOPF's NDA return, and delimitation blows, though Gaurav Gogoi's star power offers faint Congress lifelines.

Anti-incumbency gnaws at the grassroots: Only 38.3 per cent pledge loyalty to their current MLA, with 22.4 per cent eyeing same-party alternatives and 22.3 per cent ready to defect entirely.

Himanta Biswa Sarma's administration commands 58 per cent approval, 38.1 per cent "Excellent," 19.9 per cent "Good", yet 23.4 per cent slam it as poor, and 12.6 per cent call it average. Seniors (55+) deliver near-80 per cent positivity, while youth (18-24) split evenly, prioritizing development, leadership, and accountability over past performance.

Social chasms yawn wide: SC, ST, OBC, and General categories shower 70 per cent plus approval, but Muslims deliver a mere 32 per cent positivity against 48 per cent negativity. For 40.5 per cent overall, government track record rules voting decisions—surging among elders—but youth and Muslims pivot to development, party loyalty, and social justice.

This inaugural VoteVibe probe hands the NDA a tentative upper hand via Sarma's appeal and slim vote intention leads, yet youth discontent, undecided masses, and polarized communities ensure Assam's electoral cauldron boils over.