BJP surges ahead in Assam, crosses majority mark as opposition falters

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to return to power in Assam, establishing a clear lead in 98 seats as counting continued on Monday, May 4, for the 2026 Assembly elections. The party has comfortably moved past the majority mark of 64, signalling a decisive mandate rather than a narrow incumbency advantage.

Trends released by the Election Commission of India showed the BJP-led front maintaining a strong lead across regions, with a notable consolidation of the Hindu vote reshaping the state’s electoral landscape. The scale of the lead points to sustained voter confidence in the ruling party’s governance.

The outcome also reflects a significant setback for the Indian National Congress and its allies. Despite leadership changes and an aggressive campaign, the opposition has struggled to reconnect with key voter groups. Its inability to regain the trust of communities such as the Ahoms, tea garden workers, and sections of Muslim voters has weakened its position across Upper Assam.

A key test for the opposition was the alliance of prominent Ahom leaders — Gaurav Gogoi (Congress), Akhil Gogoi (Raijor Dal), and Lurinjyoti Gogoi (Assam Jatiya Parishad). The grouping aimed to mobilise regional identity and consolidate the Ahom vote. However, early trends suggest the strategy has not delivered the expected results.

In the Jorhat constituency, Gaurav Gogoi lost to BJP’s Hitendra Nath Goswami by 23,182 votes. In Khowang, Lurinjyoti Gogoi lagged behind BJP candidate Chakradhar Gogoi by 8,675 votes in the 10th round. Meanwhile, in Sibsagar, Akhil Gogoi held a narrower lead of 6,837 votes over BJP’s Kushal Dowari after eight rounds.

The BJP’s performance indicates that its influence in the Ahom-dominated belt remains largely intact, despite the opposition’s targeted effort to challenge its dominance in the region.

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma reiterated that the state had undergone a “complete turnaround” under BJP rule. “We have completely turned around Assam. Today, people are seeing a new Assam, based on our strong culture and heritage,” he said. He added that “people, except Bangladeshi infiltrators, are with the BJP,” and claimed that “no local indigenous Indian people will vote for Congress.”

Sarma also criticised the opposition sharply, stating, “Who wants to go to Congress? Congress can’t form its government in India… Congress can never form the government in India.”

According to the latest trends, the BJP is leading in 79 seats, while Congress is ahead in 23. The Bodoland People's Front (BPF) leads in 10 seats, followed by the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) with nine. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is ahead in two seats, while Raijor Dal and the United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) are leading in two and one seats, respectively.

With counting still underway, the BJP appears firmly on course to retain power, while the opposition faces questions over its strategy and declining support base.