Northeast set for normal monsoon as IMD cuts India rainfall forecast
The IMD has lowered India's monsoon rainfall forecast to 90 per cent of the LPA while predicting normal rain for the Northeast. The outlook also flags rising El Niño odds, warmer June temperatures and more heatwave days in several states.
- May 29, 2026,
- Updated May 29, 2026, 11:18 AM IST
Northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall during this year's southwest monsoon season, even as much of the country is likely to experience below-normal precipitation, according to the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) second long-range forecast issued on May 29.
The weather agency has projected that India will receive 90 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, lower than the 92 per cent forecast made in April. The estimate carries a model error margin of four per cent.
IMD Director General of Meteorology Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the Northeast is expected to record rainfall between 94 and 106 per cent of the LPA, placing it in the normal category. In contrast, Central India, Northwest India, South Peninsular India and the Monsoon Core Zone are likely to receive below-normal rainfall.
The forecast suggests that June rainfall across the country will remain below normal at less than 92 per cent of the LPA. However, parts of Northeast India, Northwest India and the southern peninsula could receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the month.
The latest outlook also points to warmer-than-usual conditions across most parts of the country. Maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal in several regions during June.
IMD has warned of an above-normal number of heatwave days in states including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Increased heatwave activity is also likely in parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu.
On global climate indicators, the weather office said neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are gradually shifting towards El Niño. The probability of El Niño conditions is expected to rise to 82 per cent in June and exceed 90 per cent by July and August. Meanwhile, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are forecast to continue through the monsoon season.
Despite concerns over seasonal rainfall, India recorded four per cent above-normal rainfall in May, while cumulative rainfall up to May 27 remained one per cent above normal.
The southwest monsoon reached the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, four days ahead of schedule, and has since advanced into the South Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region. Weather conditions remain favourable for its onset over Kerala and the northeastern states within the coming week.
The IMD also said severe heatwave conditions over Northwest India are likely to ease over the next few days due to the influence of western disturbances, easterly winds and thunderstorm activity across several parts of the region.