Census vs. Fiction: How a debunked ‘illegal immigrant’ narrative fueled Manipur’s campaign against Kuki-Zo

A weaponised fiction has become a death sentence in Manipur. The persistent narrative that the Kuki-Zo tribal people are “illegal immigrants” flooding in from Myanmar is not a demographic observation—it is a political weapon. Repeated by elements of the state, media, and ethnic militias, this lie provides the incendiary pretext for a campaign of ethnic cleansing. Yet, this dangerous myth disintegrates under the scrutiny of India’s own empirical evidence. An impartial analysis of census data and historical context reveals the true engine of demographic change: not cross-border infiltration, but successive waves of brutal, internal displacement caused by orchestrated violence.

The Demographic Evidence: A Story of Selective Scrutiny

The most definitive rebuttal comes from the Census of India’s own Table A-02, which tracks decadal population variation. The data reveals a stark contrast that undermines the core accusation.

Churachandpur, the principal Kuki-Zo majority district, shows a pattern of organic and moderating growth. Its decadal growth rate has steadily declined, falling to 20.3% for 2001-2011—a rate notably below the Manipur state average of 24.5%. This consistent deceleration is the statistical opposite of a district experiencing unchecked illegal immigration.

In stark contrast, Senapati, a Naga-majority district, recorded a staggering 68.9 per cent population surge in that same decade. This explosive growth far exceeds any fluctuation in Kuki-Zo areas. The chart below vividly captures this divergent trajectory, showing Senapati's steep climb against Churachandpur's stabilising trend.

"Decadal Population Growth: Churachandpur vs. Senapati Districts"

This disparity exposes a profound hypocrisy. The genuine, significant demographic surge in Senapati attracts no political panic or accusations of a "foreign influx." Meanwhile, the Kuki-Zo community, with its demonstrably normalising growth, is branded an existential demographic threat. The narrative is not based on data; it is a tool of selective scapegoating.

The Historical Catalyst: Violence as the Engine of Displacement

If census spikes in Kuki-Zo areas are not due to immigration, what explains them? History provides the grim answer: localized increases are direct fingerprints of violent displacement, tracing the movement of survivors fleeing for their lives.

Wave 1: The NSCN-IM Purge (1993-1997)

In the mid-1990s, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) launched a campaign to clear Kuki villages from areas it claimed for a “Greater Nagalim.” This was a calculated ethnic purge. According to Kuki civil society records and independent reports, this violence resulted in the deaths of over 1,000 Kuki civilians, the burning of more than 360 villages, and the internal displacement of 50,000–100,000 people.

The demographic impact is etched in the census. The significant population increase in the Tengnoupal area during the 1991-2001 period is not an immigration spike; it is the tragic ledger of survivors regrouping in safer Kuki-Zo areas after being forcibly driven from their homes in Naga-majority districts.

Wave 2: The State-Tolerated Onslaught (May 2023–Present)

The current conflict has seen the "illegal immigrant" myth wielded as a weapon of war with even more devastating effect. Following a contentious court ruling, Meitei-led militias, allegedly with the tacit support of state authorities, have unleashed violence against Kuki-Zo communities. The fabricated slurs of "poppy kings" and "Myanmar migrants" provided the cover for atrocity.

The humanitarian toll is catastrophic and ongoing: over 225 killed, more than 60,000 displaced, and thousands of homes and hundreds of churches destroyed. This violence has effected a de facto partition of Manipur into ethnic zones, a reality that screams of targeted displacement, not random conflict. The state’s failure to protect its Kuki-Zo citizens and to curb militant impunity has been documented by international observers, constituting a severe breakdown of constitutional order.

The Path Forward: From Weaponised Myths to Justice and Political Reality

Manipur’s crisis represents what India’s Supreme Court has termed an "absolute breakdown of law and order." Ending this cycle requires a deliberate, justice-oriented reversal that addresses the root causes of the violence: the state's failure to protect its Kuki-Zo citizens and the community's subsequent complete loss of faith in the existing structure.

1. Anchor Public Discourse in Fact: The Government of India and all national institutions must publicly and consistently repudiate the baseless "illegal immigrant" canard with the very census data they produce. Policy must flow from evidence, not prejudice.
2. Prioritise Justice and Humanitarian Relief: There must be credible, independent investigations into atrocities from both the 1990s and the current violence, leading to accountability. Simultaneously, a massive, unimpeded humanitarian corridor must be established for the tens of thousands displaced.
3. Engage Seriously with the Demand for a Separate Administration: The call for a separate administration within the Indian Constitution, voiced unanimously by Kuki-Zo civil society and political representatives, is a direct consequence of the state-engineered violence and a total collapse of trust. It is not a secessionist demand but a plea for security, dignified survival, and self-governance after the state of Manipur has proven itself an existential threat. This legitimate political demand must be the basis for any future constitutional talks.

Conclusion

The claim that the Kuki-Zo people are illegal immigrants is not a statistical error. It is a deliberate, weaponised lie designed to dehumanise a community and justify its violent removal from lands inhabited for centuries. India’s own census data provides irrefutable proof that its demographic story is one of normal growth savagely punctuated by the trauma of forced displacement.

For the international community, Manipur is a stark case study in how majoritarian disinformation can fuel atrocity. For India, it is a profound test of its secular, democratic constitution. Lasting peace will not be found in crafting more sophisticated myths, but in finally honouring the unambiguous truth told by the data and the graves: the demon haunting Manipur is displacement, not demographics. The "illegal immigrant" lie must be retired, and the political demand for safety and dignity through a separate administration must be heard, not as a concession, but as the only viable foundation for justice and future coexistence.