Resilience is always the Smartest Investment: A case for The Eastern Himalaya

On the unfortunate night of October 3-4 2023, a landslide in North Sikkim triggered a glacial lake outburst flood involving South Lhonak Lake, releasing an estimated 43 to 50 million cubic meters of water. The resulting cascade destroyed the Teesta Valley, which is 385 km from the lake and along the way completely crushed the 1,200 MW Teesta-III hydro-electric project at Chungthang. Reports indicate nearly 55people died while 74 went missing.

And the financial consequences extended well beyond the initial flood. The National Disaster Management Authority’s Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) report indicated a total loss of aprox₹1,480 croreacross social, agricultural, tourism and infrastructure sectors; subsequently, the govt of Sikkim sought financial support of ₹3,673.25 crore from the centre for recovery and reconstruction work. On the other hand, the NHPC estimated ₹788 crore in material damage and business losses for this disaster that washed away its facility. These figures individually and collectively reflect the extent of damage and the economic strain of any disaster.

And if we carefully assess the situation further specially in the context of exposure, flood modelling study indicates that there are 232 glacial lakes larger than 0.01 square kilometres in Sikkim (as on 2024),of which 7 are dangerously positioned to directly expose over 10,000 people in the event of potential flooding outbursts. Another study on Arunachal Pradesh said that 197 glacial lakes are expanding out of which 27are high-risk.

When water bodies up in the mountains face such climate vulnerability, they are likely to throw a multitude of hazards in the downstream areas.On 29 October 2026, when there was an outburst in the Sintaphu Lake in Bhutan, it has damaged road access and infrastructure in the popular natural hot springs complex at Gasa Tshachu and at Punakha area too among other places. It is also reported thata new artificial lake at Taktsemakhang near the confluence of the Sintaphu Chhu and Lungu Chhu rivers, has formed.

This has instantly caused major concern in areas of Assam and Bengal too; the Sintaphu Chhu and Lungu Chhu rivers later form the Sankosh River that merges with the mighty Brahmaputra downstream.

While most of these destructive mountain floods may involve glacial lakes, not every such event is born out of a GLOF situation. In August this year, collapse of a massive ice–rock on the north face of the Langtang Lirung massif in Nepal, triggered a catastrophic transboundary flash flood situation. This devastating event, besides destroying roads, bridges, and hydropower facilities, atleast 1,455 killed and more than 5,000 missing. The cost of recovery and disaster is estimated to be USD 4.8 billion.

These examples show why disaster financing must extend beyond immediate relief. Reconstruction and rehabilitation can place prolonged pressure on public finances, particularly in smaller economies with limited capacity to absorb losses running into billions of dollars.

Besides, emergency concessional loans available with multilateral banks such as World Bank or ADB, developing countries need to rely on specialised global funds too. The Loss and Damage Fundis one such facility, designed to help rescue and redevelop countries facing extreme weather events or GLOF-like situations. For adaptation and building resilience, countries also receive financial support from sources such asthe Green Climate Fund (GCF) and Global Environment Facility (GEF).

Disaster management combines action before an event with response and recovery afterwards. Pre-disaster risk reduction cannot guarantee a disaster-free environment, but it can limit damage and disruption. Financing preparedness is therefore as important as access to finance after a disaster for adequate response, reconstruction resources and support for the continuity of essential services. Research and monitoring, assessment of infrastructure exposure, and community preparedness can help protect lives, livelihoods and public assets while sustaining economic activity.

Therefore, preparedness is always emphasised. In case of the transboundary context, collaboration and information sharing on hazards, and comprehensive monitoring of the full chain of possible failures,are key for a proper forecast vis-à-vis an early warning. In India, the National GLOF Risk Mitigation Project has helped enhance regional cooperation as well as mobilise necessary funding for states such as Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Uttarakhand to undertake risk assessment, monitoring, early warning, site-specific mitigation and community capacity development.

For downstream states like Assam, such collective engagement and a shared approach will further help strengthen disaster preparedness and ensure protection of exposed communities and infrastructure through timely information exchange and coordinated warning protocols.

For Assam, these events carry a clear message: safeguarding downstream communities and development gains requires sustained investment in resilience, supported by upstream cooperation. The question is how to connect preparedness, public expenditure and climate finance so that risk reduction, emergency response and reconstruction reinforce one another.

While Assam is amongst the fastest-growing states endowed with unique ecological and cultural heritage, it is also the most vulnerable to climate change. It is pushing for enhanced budgetary allocation for addressing climate priorities through departmental planning and public expenditure. Besides the green budget allocation of Rs 8,648.50 crore for FY 2026–27 that covers a multitude of environmental and climate-centric initiatives, targeted investments will complement the state’s effort to build climate resilience and strengthen disaster preparedness and mitigation plan.

The multi-year Climate Resilient Brahmaputra Integrated Flood and Riverbank Erosion Risk Management Project started in 2024, supported by the ADB is one such investment, which further sanctioned an additional loan support of USD 182 million early this year. In addition, the Assam Disaster Risk Reduction Roadmap 2030 has mandated earmarking 3% of line departments’ non-salary budgets as a Resilience Budget that provides an opportunity to develop a prioritised pipeline of risk-reduction projects.

Regional dialogue can help connect these investments with shared priorities. The Balipara Foundation’s14th Eastern Himalayan Naturenomics Forum that was running in Guwahati from 30 October to 3 November 2026 under the theme‘The Future of the Third Pole and the Eastern Himalaya’, provides one such setting. Organised collaboratively across five major universities and research institutes in the region for the first time, it brings ecological health and economic resilience into the same conversation. In the spirit of the Sustainable Development Goals, the opportunity is to strengthen cooperation in a region whose rivers carry both prosperity and risk; the EHNF has already set the tone for action towards a sustainable and resilient Eastern Himalaya.
 

Given the ecological importance of the eastern Himalayas that includes the northeast, a designated biodiversity hotspot, it requires careful consideration of risks that cross administrative and national boundaries, when comes to disaster mitigation planning. Building on the various resilience-building efforts and commitments, strengthening upstream partnerships and aligning investment with community needs can help secure the ecological and economic future of the region. Resilience, once developed cannot eliminate mountain hazards, but will certainly strengthen the region’s capacity to anticipate, withstand and recover from the impacts of climate induced disaster setting the foundation for sustainable development.

 

Dr Pranab J Patar is an award-winning environment and sustainability expert, currently associated with the Finance Department, Govt of Assam, contributing towards building a climate-resilient and clean development pathway for the state.