Shifting Geography of Drought and its impacts in North East India

India is experiencing the intensifying impacts of climate change, characterised by rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and an increase in extreme weather events. The country is witnessing a general decline in monsoon rainfall, which accounts for 80 per cent of its annual precipitation, alongside a rise in the frequency of heavy rainfall events. This has made India particularly vulnerable, given its large population, diverse geography, and heavy reliance on agriculture. Among the most pressing consequences of these changes is the growing risk of drought, which threatens agricultural productivity, water resources, and socio-economic stability across the nation.

Drought is a slow-onset natural hazard characterised by prolonged periods of water scarcity due to insufficient precipitation. It disrupts ecological security and affects agriculture, health, economies, energy, and the environment. The impacts of drought accumulate gradually and can persist long after the event, making it a creeping disaster with far-reaching consequences. Over the past five decades, large parts of India have become drier, with approximately two-thirds of the country now vulnerable to drought.

The southwest monsoon, critical for agricultural water supply and groundwater recharge, is reportedly weakening, driven by factors such as Indian Ocean warming and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This, combined with India’s diverse physiography and variable rainfall patterns, results in varying drought intensities across regions. Historically, droughts have been a major driver of famines in monsoon-dependent India, and their shifting geography, influenced primarily by climate change, necessitates robust adaptation measures to ensure the well-being of the population. 

North-East India covers 7.9 per cent of India’s geographical area and is home to 3.8 per cent of its population. The region is characterised by its unique physical and human geographies, strategic location, and geopolitical sensitivity. Recognised as a global biodiversity hotspot, North-East India is also socio-economically underdeveloped and prone to environmental and social challenges. Over 70 per cent of the region lies within the Brahmaputra River Basin and is known for its lush landscapes and abundant monsoon rainfall. These rains, along with snow-fed mountain springs, feed the region’s rivers and tributaries and account for 32.25 per cent of India’s total water resources. This water abundance supports agriculture, forests, and water-dependent ecosystems, making the region an ecological and economic hub.

However, over the past century, North-East’s rainfall patterns have undergone significant changes with a noticeable shift toward drier conditions. Irregular rainfall, delayed monsoon onset, and prolonged dry spells have become more frequent, leading to drought-like conditions across many parts of the region. A notable phenomenon is the emergence of a flood-drought cycle within the monsoon season, where intense bursts of rainfall cause flooding, followed by extended dry periods that border on drought. This shift is particularly alarming in a region historically defined by its wet, monsoon-dominated climate. The high dependency on rainfall makes North-East India highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, as disruption in precipitation patterns directly affects the flow of springs, rivers, and groundwater systems.

Long and short-term data analyses confirm a consistent decline in monsoon rainfall across North-East India over the past seven decades. The region’s drought index is shifting toward drier conditions, increasing the likelihood of drought occurrences. Scientific projections suggest that the number of drought weeks during the monsoon season in states such as Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura, and Manipur could rise by 25 per cent in future. Scientists predict that climate change will significantly impact agriculture, water availability, and forests in North-East India, posing a severe threat to the region’s ecological and economic stability.

Several factors contribute to the rising drought risk in North-East India. Climate change is altering precipitation patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, including droughts. The  Himalayan region, a natural water tower for the North-East, is experiencing accelerated glacial melting due to rising temperatures. This reduces the flow of rivers and streams, leading to water scarcity downstream. Deforestation and land degradation further exacerbate the situation. Forests play a critical role in regulating water cycles, preventing soil erosion, and maintaining moisture levels. However, activities such as illegal logging, land conversion for agriculture, and infrastructure development have reduced forest cover. This leads to increased runoff and water scarcity, intensifying drought conditions.

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The impacts of drought in North-East India are intense and multifaceted. It affects agriculture, water resources, and socio-economic well-being. Agriculture is the backbone of the region’s economy and is highly vulnerable. Droughts threaten crop yields, food security, livestock and impact the livelihoods of people. Water scarcity is a direct consequence of drought and depletes springs, rivers, and groundwater, leading to shortages for drinking, irrigation, and domestic use. This poses significant health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly and the poor. The socio-economic consequences are compounded by the region’s underdevelopment, which limits its capacity to cope with such environmental challenges.

The growing drought risk in North-East India demands a holistic approach. Effective water resource management strategies, such as rainwater harvesting, improved irrigation efficiency and groundwater recharge initiatives, are essential to mitigate water scarcity. Afforestation and reforestation efforts can restore forest cover and enhance the region’s ability to retain water and regulate hydrological cycles. Sustainable land use practices and climate-smart agriculture can reduce the vulnerability of crops to drought.

Regular monitoring and evaluation of drought events with research on drought in collaboration with regional and external institutions, are critical for developing informed adaptation strategies. Policymakers should consider re-regionalisation of drought in India to account for its shifting geography and explore the establishment of a dedicated South Asia-level drought research centre to study, monitor, and manage drought hazards. Additionally, building a cadre of professionals with expertise in drought monitoring and management through education, training, and capacity-building initiatives will strengthen the region’s resilience.