Signs were there—If only we had looked deeper: Analysing TMC’s loss in West Bengal elections 2026

“In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.” – Franklin D Roosevelt

4th May 2024 is likely to enter the annals of Indian and West Bengal political history as one of the most significant moments ever. After all, it will be recalled as the day when the Bharatiya Janata Party finally managed to breach fortress Bengal and came into power for the first time in the birthplace of its ideologue, Shyama Prasad Mukherjee. The Sangh Parivaar’s long-standing dream of uniting ANGA (Bihar), BANGA(Bengal) and KALINGA (Odisha) has finally come true as the BJP is set to achieve a record majority of more than 2/3rd of the total 294 seats in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly. By that comparison, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress have been reduced to less than 100 and has to sit in the opposition benches for the next five years. For a party that won 29 out of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in Bengal just two years back, the result is not just a rude shock but also unprecedented in many ways, as it faces an existential crisis from here onwards. So what led to this disaster after all? Were the signs always there? Or did a seasoned veteran like Mamata Banerjee miss them when it mattered the most? The article tries to break down the layers as they occurred.

SIR and the Political Reset

SIR or the Special Intensive Revision, meant to clean up the voter rolls and give the elections a fresh momentum, was perhaps the most talked about thing in the last few months in West Bengal. The exercise struck out a bit close to 60 Lakh names in the first phase- a vast majority of whom were duplicate, absent, shifted or dead voters. However, things changed dramatically when Logical Discrepancy was added, and a huge number of voters came under it. Around 27 lakh people eventually couldn’t make it to the voter list this time as the Tribunals couldn’t conduct the hearing on time before the state went to the polls. The overall vote difference between the two sides is less than 30 lakhs, and that speaks volumes about how the advantage shifted decisively in favour of the BJP as the political contours of the state were sharply redrawn.

Voter Fatigue- The Signs of Anti-incumbency which the ruling party missed

15 years is a long time for any political party in power, and anti-incumbency is bound to strike the best of them. In West Bengal, TMC had been grappling with a lot of issues that set its image on a downward spiral among the voters, but very little was done to address it. The Teacher Recruitment Scams had stopped the recruitment in government schools for years, while close to 26,000 teachers were staring at the chance of losing their jobs due to the irregularities in the recruitment process carried out in 2016. The industries didn’t come to the state despite hundreds of MoUs signed over the years in the Annual Bengal Global Business Summit, and the state of education and infrastructure wasn’t too great either. The absolute hegemony and domination of TMC in every sphere of public life almost became similar to what used to be the party-society structure during the Left Front years. Celebrities contested elections on TMC tickets and reached the parliament. Almost all top film stars and celebrities in West Bengal have been affiliated with the ruling party for years. The corruption at the grassroots and the Syndicate- Cut Money culture had drawn the ire of the public, but despite that, the top leadership didn’t take any measures to control the situation that went out of hand. The party used to control everything, including the famed Durga Pujos of Kolkata, with most big TMC leaders associated directly with some of the most well-known Durga Pujos in the city of joy. To add up to all of this, the TMC govt faced massive protests in 2024 during their handling of the RG Kar Incident, where the horrific rape and murder of a young doctor had sent shockwaves across the nation. The bhadralok was out on the streets, and Kolkata had almost come to a standstill for months. The victim’s mother's cries for justice touched the hearts of citizens across the country, even as the ruling establishment tried ways to ride the tide. BJP, to their credit, managed to get Ratna Debnath, the RG Kar victim’s mother, as a candidate, and it struck a chord with the womenfolk who backed her. In the end, Debnath triumphed from the TMC stronghold of Panihati in North 24 PGs with a good margin as ordinary people hailed it as poetic justice.

Even during Lionel Messi’s GOAT- India tour, West Bengal set a poor precedent as the event was marred with irregularities. Actors and those close to the TMC leaders were seen to be hogging Lionel Messi, which led to utter chaos, and eventually the Great Man had to leave, the iconic Salt Lake Stadium. What followed was absolute carnage as the fans went on a rampage. The most striking frame during that entire incident was that of Messi with TMC ministers, Aroop Biswas and Sujit Bose. Both Biswas and Bose were very popular and powerful figures within the TMC hierarchy, in charge of important ministries. Biswas was famously among the 30 leaders of TMC who managed to win even during a wave of CPIM-led Left Front in 2006. This time, however, both the ministers have lost from their own bastions, the absolute bhadralok-dominated regions of Kolkata like Tollyganj and Bidhannagar.

Counter-Polarisation and curbing violence- The impact of rigging free elections

A lot of political experts and analysts following Bengal over the years have explained how West Bengal’s high muslim population is a hindrance for the BJP as the party starts on the backfoot in around 80-100 seats in West Bengal. What most of them missed is how TMC’s minority appeasement politics had been going against it in areas like Maldah, Murshidabad and North Dinajpur. These three districts have the highest percentage of Muslim population in the state, and the BJP managed to consolidate Hindu voters here during 2019,2021 and even 2024. This time, besides the Muslim-dominated districts, polarisation worked across the state. The horrific murder of Harogobindo Das and Chandan Das brought back spine-chilling memories of partition and the Noakhali riots for millions of Bengalees. The visuals of thousands of Hindu families leaving Murshidabad and seeking refuge in nearby Maldah were never going to go in favour of TMC. To add to its woes, the statements by several leaders of the party, including the Chief Minister herself, went against her. The Bhadralok, especially in areas like Jadavpur and Tollyganj, which have a high concentration of people who migrated from East Pakistan and later Bangladesh, backed the BJP completely this time. This is what explains the loss of big leaders like sitting minister Aroop Biswas and popular councillor, Debabrata Majumdar.

The Election Commission also took unprecedented steps to curb election-related violence in Bengal. The Trinamool Congress, over the years, had become notorious for rigging local body elections and panchayat polls. The amount of violence during these elections had long created an atmosphere of fear in the voters’ minds. The Trinamool Congress systematically decimated the opposition spaces in areas like municipalities, gram panchayats and Zilla Parishads. Of more than 100 municipalities in WB, only Taherpur is opposition-controlled. In most corporations, there is barely any opposition to the ruling party, which has incredible clout and hegemony. To control this atmosphere of fear in rural Bengal, the election commission deployed a record number of central forces, which patrolled every nook and cranny of the state. The commission also changed the entire structure of the state's bureaucracy. All officers, perceived to be loyal to TMC, were removed at all levels. Earlier, only top officers and cops used to be transferred, but this time the changes were implemented right down to the bottom, with OC’s and BDOs also being transferred. This emboldened the BJP supporters and gave them the confidence that they could go out there and vote, as there wouldn’t be much of a chance of any violence. This left little to no scope for booth jamming, false vote casting and preventing voters from giving their votes. In Falta, where there were allegations of irregularities, the ECI has decided to conduct a repoll for the entire constituency later in the month. For context, Falta also happens to be under Abhishek Banerjee’s LS centre, Diamond Harbour. During the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Abhishek Banerjee had received a humongous 89 per cent of the votes from this assembly segment. The TMC MP got more than 1,83,000 votes against BJP’s Abhijit Das, who got a bit above 15,000 votes. The numbers here themselves tell a story, and it's also the reason why the EC tightened its curb over the state this time.

The Road Ahead for TMC- Existential Crisis?

For starters, the road ahead for Mamata Banerjee and TMC seems to be really hard. Most of her party stalwarts have lost in this election, and barring probably Murshidabad and parts of South Bengal, the TMC has been absolutely routed. Life at the opposition benches comes fast, and TMC is already getting a taste of it as their cadres and leaders have been attacked in many places. For TMC, the first job will be to save their cadres and workers in the aftermath of this mammoth change. The party controlled all aspects of public life in Bengal, and all those who roamed around as kings will now have to learn to fight from the trenches. The biggest trouble for Banerjee is something else. From the inception of her party in 1998, she has always allied with either the BJP or Congress based on whoever has been in power at the centre. She went with Congress in 2009 and 2011, but after removing the left from power, she decided to go solo. TMC will now have to navigate life in a world where there will be no support from a ruling party at the centre. This means less funds, less opposition space and more importantly, an erosion at the grassroots. In West Bengal, the power corridors belong to those who control the streets, and currently, the BJP is that party. To add to TMC’s woes, the CPIM and Congress, both of whom absolutely collapsed in the previous elections, have surged back this time. Congress has won two seats in Murshidabad, while CPIM won the Domkal seat, thereby ending their drought and getting back into the Bengal assembly. Most of their votes have come from the Muslim community, and in all three seats, the TMC won with stunning margins the last time. The question, therefore, is, for how long can Mamata Banerjee continue to fight now that she doesn’t have any machinery left any more. The left still has cadres, and they will be getting ready to mobilise them in the upcoming municipality polls in Bengal. If at all anything, this election proves that the people cannot be taken for granted for too long in a democracy! At some point in time, they rise up, they protest, and eventually the autocratic regimes fall. For TMC, the signs were always there, but now the path ahead will be narrower, and every step will be towards a steeper climb- Unforgiving and one bearing a high cost.