Why the BJP is likely to return to power in Assam

As Assam heads toward another Assembly election, a common question emerges among voters and political observers alike: why does the Bharatiya Janata Party appear better placed to form the government again? The answer lies largely in organisational structure and internal party functioning rather than campaign speeches alone.

One of the biggest differences between the BJP and the Indian National Congress is the way they manage internal competition and ticket distribution.

Congress follows a relatively open and democratic process within the party. In a single constituency, many aspirants may apply for the party ticket, but the final decision rests with the high command, which selects only one candidate. While this system gives party workers the freedom to aspire, it often creates internal dissatisfaction. Supporters of different aspirants begin aligning against each other, and once a candidate is finalised, unity becomes difficult to restore. This leads to internal conflict and increases the risk of local-level anti-incumbency within the party itself.

The BJP, on the other hand, operates as a more disciplined and centralised organisation. Even when multiple aspirants exist in a constituency, the party avoids open internal competition. Candidate selection is based on booth-level feedback, internal surveys, and assessments of winnability. The leadership focuses on choosing the candidate who enjoys wider acceptance among party workers and voters at the grassroots level.

This approach significantly reduces internal dissent. Once the party takes a decision, leaders and workers are expected to follow it, and most do. This collective discipline ensures that the party campaigns as a single unit rather than as divided factions.

Another major advantage for the BJP is its strong booth-level organisation. Each polling booth has dedicated party workers responsible for voter outreach, mobilisation, and turnout. This structured grassroots presence helps the party maximise votes and minimise losses caused by confusion or lack of coordination.

Anti-incumbency is a natural feature of democracy, but the BJP often manages it through strategic candidate changes, organisational discipline, and by highlighting welfare schemes and development work. In contrast, opposition parties facing internal divisions often end up strengthening anti-incumbency due to poor coordination and lack of unity.

In simple terms, elections today are not fought only on ideology. They are fought on organisation, discipline, and unity. In Assam, the BJP’s structured decision-making and strong grassroots machinery give it a clear advantage. That is why, once again, the party appears well positioned to return to power.