India Today Axis My India Exit poll: ZPM set to sweep Mizoram, may win 28-35 seats

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll has predicted that the Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) is likely to sweep the Assembly election in Mizoram, which was held on November 7. 

The regional party may win between 28 and 35 seats in the 40-member house. If that becomes true on December 3, the day of counting, ZPM leader Lalduhoma, the 74-year-old former IPS officer will take oath as the next chief minister of Mizoram.

According to the exit poll, the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) will win between three and seven seats while the Congress will have to stay happy with two and four seats. The BJP, which contested only in 23 seats is unlikely to open account in the Christian-dominated northeastern state.

The ZPM is set to corner 49 per cent of the total vote share while 27 per cent voted for the MNF, predicts the exit poll. The Congress vote share will remain restricted to 20 per cent.

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The result is being seen as the consequence of a strong anti-incumbency against CM Zoramthanga-led MNF government. Though Zoramthanga tried to resurrect some popularity by raising the issue of Mizo identity during the recent influx from Myanmar and conflict between Meiteis and Kukis in neighbouring Manipur, it did not seem to work in his favour. The Kukis share the same ethnic roots with the Mizos. 

The Congress seems to be directionless after the retirement of Lalthanhawla, the octogenarian former CM. Interestingly, ZPM head Lalduhoma, prodded by Indira Gandhi won the 1984 Lok Sabha polls on a Congress ticket. He was the security in charge of the former prime minister in 1982.

He has been in active politics for a long though without much success till now. In 2018, ZPM won eight seats. The prediction of ZPM's landslide victory is being seen as a vote for change. In the survey, 40 per cent of respondents said that they wanted Lalduhoma as the next chief minister.

Experts see it as an "AAP moment" in Mizoram as the former policeman revolved his party's election campaign around the issue of corruption and unemployment. The party also raised the issue of drug abuse. To attract youth, it offered tickets to fresh faces most of whom were under the age of 50.

As expectedly, it got more traction in urban areas with 53 per cent of urban voters supporting it as against 45 per cent rural voters, according to the poll. It's the only party whose urban vote share was more than that of rural. 

In the age group of below 50, more than half of the population voted for ZPM. Education-wise, 70 per cent postgraduate and 57 per cent of graduates voted for ZPM. Profession-wise, small shop owners and government jobholders were the biggest supporters of the party.