Cyclone Remal weakens, monsoon 2024 promises above-normal rainfall

Cyclonic Storm Remal over Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal moved slowly northwards at a speed of 05 kmph over the past 06 hours. At 1430 hrs IST on 27th May 2024, it was centred near latitude 23.1°N and longitude 89.2°E, about 80 km north-northwest of Mongla (Bangladesh), 110 km north-northeast of Canning (West Bengal), 120 km east-northeast of Kolkata (West Bengal), 170 km northwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh), and 140 km southwest of Dhaka (Bangladesh). 

The Cyclonic Storm “Remal” (pronounced as “Re-Mal”) over Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal moved slowly northwards, with a speed of 05 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centered at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 27th May, 2024 over the same region, near latitude 23.1°N and longitude 89.2°E about 80 km north-northwest of Mongla (Bangladesh), 110 km north-northeast of Canning (West Bengal), 120 km east-northeast of Kolkata (West Bengal),  170 km northwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh) and 140 km southwest of Dhaka (Bangladesh)

The system is likely to move north-northeastwards, and gradually weaken further into a Deep Depression by night of today, the 27th May 2024.

Updated Long Range Forecast Outlook for the 2024 Southwest Monsoon Season (June-September) Rainfall and Monthly Rainfall and Temperature for June 2024 with the following highlights:

Also Read: Cyclone Remal: West District sees highest rainfall, no report of damage, loss of life

a)    Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long-period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%.

Thus Above Normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September), 2024.

b)   The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September 2024) rainfall is most likely to be above normal over Central India and South Peninsular India (>106% of LPA),  normal over Northwest India (92-108% of LPA) and below normal over Northeast India (

c)    The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ) consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be Above Normal (>106% of LPA).

d)   Above Normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except many areas of the northern part of Northwest India, Northeast India and eastern part of Central India and adjoining areas of east India, where below normal to normal rainfall is most likely.

e) Normal rainfall (92-108% of LPA) is most likely over the country as a whole during June, 2024. The above normal monthly rainfall is most likely over most areas of the south peninsula, and adjoining areas of central India and over isolated areas of Northwest and Northeast India. Below normal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northern and eastern parts of Northwest India and the eastern part of Central India, and over some areas over Northeast India and the southeastern part of the South Peninsula.

f) In June, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except many parts of southern peninsular India, where normal to below-normal temperatures are most likely. Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except extreme northern parts of northwest India and a few pockets of east and northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are most likely.

g) During June,  above-normal heatwave days are likely over most areas of Northwest India and adjoining areas of Central India.

h) The strong El Niño conditions observed over the equatorial Pacific at the beginning of this year have weakened rapidly into weak El Niño conditions and currently transitioning towards ENSO neutral conditions. The latest Climate model forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to get established during the beginning of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the monsoon season.

i)   At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts from many global climate models indicate positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.

IMD will issue the forecast for the July rainfall in the last week of June.