Myanmar's present situation, increasing Chinese presence and Indian dilemma

Myanmar has witnessed successive armed conflicts since gaining independence in 1948. The country is strategically located between India and China. The India- Myanmar border has been in headlines whether it is Tatmadaw’s counter insurgency operations against Indian insurgents groups or the move of Myanmar Nationals Post coup in February 2021. Beijing’s flagship project under the BRI, China-Myanmar Economic Corridor CMEC, which includes infrastructure projects linking China’s Yunnan province with the strategic deep sea port of Kyaukphyu in Rakhine province providing access to the Bay of Bengal and is also considered as part of Chinese ‘String of Pearls’ strategy. The Gwadar port, part of the CPEC along with Kyaukphyu port gives China the benefit of strategically containing India and blocking its access both to the west and the east in eventuality of any Indo- China conflict. China’s strategic ambitions override its acceptance for denial of any proposals by people of Myanmar or elected government. 

Present Situation: Challenges for India

Myanmar faces a very volatile situation with increasing clashes between resistance forces and junta. Approximately 5400 people have lost their life as a result of fighting in Myanmar and around 3 million people have been displaced due to continued violence with numbers increasing every day. Since March 2021 approximately 36,000 refugees have crossed over to Mizoram and few incidents of even Clashing armed group moving close to Indian borders. PLA had conducted live fire exercise in South West Yunnan province along Myanmar border in April 2024 as a response to Operation 1027 launched in October 2023 by EAGs against military junta. China has been supporting EAGs but now it is impacting its trade and geopolitical infrastructure. After several decades and long drawn insurgency, North East is stabilising with many insurgent groups entering into SOO (Suspension of Operations) agreement. China is actively involved in supplying arms and supporting Ethnic Armed Goups (EAGs) in Myanmar.  In Arthashastra Kautilya said that the worst of enemy is enemy within wherein he refers to internal security of state. He says that if a state has to look outwards firstly it should have stability and peace within and stable borders. In present context North East has long suffered insurgency problems which may be revived by vested interests. Porous borders poses severe security threats from these insurgents groups moving towards own side as well as Chinese supported acts of destabilising North East using these insurgents groups. Refugee influx is also a serious threat to internal security since these refugees are mostly unemployed and are prone to pick up small crimes, indulge in smuggling activities and in worst case can be employed as spies by Chinese. Continued fighting along Indian borders and refugees influx poses numerous challenges for Indian security.

Increasing Chinese Presence: Indian Footprints in Myanmar

India and Myanmar share 1643 km long open and porous border. Myanmar shares 2204 km border with China. Due to its geopolitical position in the North East, it is strategically important for India. Myanmar is only ASEAN country whose boundaries touch India, China's relationship with ASEAN countries like Vietnam and Cambodia is not good due to China's claim on South China Sea. Hence, Myanmar is also strategically important for China, giving it access to Bay of Bengal. China is major arms supplier to Myanmar which includes fighter jets, armoured vehicles, naval vessels and other military grade equipment. China is also assisting in construction of Sittwe port which is very close to Kolkata. Post-Coup, India has condemned the violence but not endorsed the legitimacy of 2020 election results. India has always maintained good relations with Tatmadaw. The Indian and Myanmar armies have conducted two joint military operations, codenamed Operation Sunrise 1 and 2, to fight insurgents along the borders of Myanmar’s Rakhine state, which borders the North Eastern Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. Seeing that Myanmar is critical to its national security interests, India provides military training and conducts joint military exercises with the Myanmar Army like the India-Myanmar Bilateral Military Exercise (IMBAX). India has not strongly condemned the actions by Tatmadaw and at the same time Chin Nationals were given shelter in Mizoram. India’s stance on Myanmar’s current situation remains neutral and it has to be understood from the perspective of increasing Chinese presence in Myanmar. This also underscores the strategic importance of Myanmar for India.

India remains in dilemma whether to support democratic movement or to grow relationship with governing military government. NSA Ajit Doval’s visit to Myanmar on 26 July 2024 for BIMSTEC and his meeting with his Myanmarese counterpart Admiral Moe Aung indicates India’s growing concern for violence and instability along border resulting in movement of refugees to Mizoram. India is also wary of security ramifications in Manipur and Mizoram which could be fallout of continued violence along the borders. The growing Chinese influence in Myanmar has to be taken seriously and it is imperative for India to work out a comprehensive policy focused towards Myanmar.