36 per cent say anti-incumbency 'very high' against Himanta Govt: Survey

A recent public opinion survey conducted by VoteVibeLLP reveals that 36% of respondents perceive anti-incumbency sentiment against the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led NDA government in Assam as 'Very High', indicating a potentially significant challenge for the ruling dispensation ahead of the upcoming elections.

The survey posed the question: "How do you see the level of anti-incumbency against the CM Himanta Biswa Sarma-led NDA government?"

Responses were as follows: Very High – 36%, High – 14.5%, Moderate – 18.2%, Low – 9.6%, Very Low – 20.5%, and Can’t Say – 1.2%. Combined, 50.5% of respondents reported High or Very High levels of anti-incumbency, underscoring a growing undercurrent of dissatisfaction with the state government.

Younger voters aged 18–24 years registered the highest anti-incumbency sentiment at 56%, followed closely by the 25–34 and 55+ age groups. The strong perception among youth may stem from persistent concerns over employment opportunities, inflation, and governance delivery.

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Gender differences in perception were minimal. Among males, 37% reported Very High anti-incumbency and 20% said Very Low. Among females, 35% reported Very High and 21% said Very Low. High, Moderate, and Low levels of sentiment were also fairly evenly split between genders.

The stark figures signal a polarised voter base, with a significant segment clearly disenchanted and another remaining firmly supportive. Analysts warn that this strong anti-incumbency wave—especially among first-time and young voters—could influence electoral dynamics if the trend holds.

The survey was conducted with over 10,000 respondents across Assam using Random Digit Dialling (RDD), and responses were weighted for gender and population proportion. As Assam approaches its next political test, the findings highlight that public dissatisfaction, while not universal, is deeply felt and demographically broad, especially among the youth, a voting bloc that could shape the outcome of future elections.